There are two main points to come out of the Iowa caucuses.
Mitt Romney’s victory, even by just 8 votes, reinforces the likelihood that he’ll be the Republican nominee. True, that by coming out of nowhere to fight Romney to a virtual tie, Rick Santorum has breathed new life into his campaign, and has a chance to consolidate support if Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., drop out. But Romney was able to win Iowa without campaigning heavily here. He has a commanding lead in New Hampshire and the money, resources and organization to sustain a multi-state campaign.
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But even if Romney wins the nomination, the Iowa results don’t bode well when it comes to assessing the Republican Party’s chances of beating President Obama in November. Though turnout was up from the 2008 caucuses, it was only up by a few thousand votes, even as GOP voter registration grew, more candidates were contesting the state and more Democrats and independents voted on the Republican side because there was no competitive Democratic race this time. Romney actually got six fewer votes this time than he did four years ago, but it was enough because nobody matched Mike Huckabee’s appeal.
Four years ago, Democrats were frothing at the mouth to win back the White House after two terms of President Bush. Starting from Iowa, the enthusiasm they felt was palpable — and they would have been ready to fight for whoever emerged as the nominee. The night he won the caucuses, Obama addressed a crowd with thousands of supporters going wild. We haven’t seen any of the GOP candidates attract that sort of affection. And the entrance polls suggest conservatives still have major doubts about Romney. Tonight’s big winner may turn out to be neither Romney nor Santorum, but Obama.
