Texas holds its primary March 2, and the central feature is the Republican race for governor. It has long seemed a two-person contest, between Governor Rick Perry, who has served for 10 years, longer than any previous governor in Texas history, and Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison. But a third candidate has emerged in recent weeks, Debra Medina, who seems to be getting support from the kind of folks who attend or admire tea parties. To get a good quick sense of the race, there’s no better source than Burka’s Blog, written by the Texas Monthly’s Paul Burka, who has been covering Texas politics for eons, fairly and perceptively. If you start from earlier entries, you’ll see how Medina has risen in the polls (or check here) and has threatened to beat out Hutchison for a spot in an April 13 runoff against Perry. Then, at the top, Burka notes what he considers Medina’s self-destruction when on his radio show Glenn Beck asked her about the 9/11 truther movement. Let Burka tell the story:
Beck’s question was whether she is a 9/11 “truther”–that is, does she believe that the United States Government blew up the World Trade Center. “I don’t have all of the evidence,” was the best she could do. After Beck cut short the conversation and [when] Medina was off the line, he said, “I think I can write her off the list. Let me take another look at Kay Bailey Hutchison if I have to.”
Burka gives the Medina campaign’s multiparagraph response, but it doesn’t strike me as too helpful to her campaign. My guess is that she will fall in the polls as fast as she rose.
One problem with the polls: nobody has any idea how many Texans will vote in the Republican primary. The Democrats have a serious candidate, longtime Houston Mayor Bill White, but his opposition looks weak. Before White’s late entry into the race, it seemed certain the Republican primary would determine the next governor of Texas; now it seems likely, but not certain, that the next governor will be chosen in the Republican primary or runoff. Historically, far more Texans voted in the Republican than the Democratic primary; in the past two decades Republican and Democratic primary turnout has been similar (Texas doesn’t have party registration and so voters can vote in either party’s primary). As late as 2008 the Democratic primary drew far more voters than the Republican primary; one reason was that it was fairly plain by the time Texas voted that John McCain had the Republican nomination sewed up, while the Democratic nomination was still very much a contest between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. In the last dozen years, Republican primary turnout has been between 1.0 million and 1.3 million in years with significant statewide contests (1996, 2000, 2008) and in the 600,000s when there was not (2002, 2004, 2006). But there are 24.8 million people in Texas, and I’m guessing that a lot more than 1.3 million will want to participate in a primary that’s likely, though not certain, to determine the next governor.
