On March 3, I wrote that global oil prices were unlikely to climb to $100 a barrel or higher. I got some things wrong.

First, I did not anticipate the extreme uncertainty that gripped oil markets, causing traders to speculate and pushing prices well above $100 a barrel for a brief period. I also did not expect some traders to go short and wager against higher prices, which pushed oil prices even higher when they were forced to cover their short positions.

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