When California decided to move up the 2020 Democratic primary to early March, it was seen as a potential “firewall” for Sen. Kamala Harris, as her home state voters will award about 20 percent of the delegates needed to secure the nomination.

A big win there would not only help Harris’ delegate math, but could also help her gain separation from opponents, or regain traction in the event of early state stumbles. On the other hand, as Ed Kilgore explained, though a major opportunity, a disappointing second- or third-place showing would be a major blow to her chances. Though it’s quite early to draw too many conclusions, some early surveys reveal a potential weakness for Harris among the state’s crucial Hispanic voting bloc.