Forecasting elections, with my boss Bob Novak, used to be my full-time job. We did pretty well. In 2002, we correctly called a 51-49 U.S. Senate (we got two races wrong, and they cancelled each other out), and in 2004, we also did very well on House and Senate races, plus we called the Electoral College, I recall, within one state. In 2008, I thought Obama would get 52% of the vote, and 282 electoral votes (he got 53% and 365). I also called the Senate races correctly that year.

I don’t have full time to dedicate to examining polls, calling politicos in every state and visiting every swing state, but I’ve done a modest amount of this sort of reporting an analysis, and I wanted to share with you my thinking and my conclusions.