The world’s oceans may not be receding, but President Obama’s convention bounce appears to be. After just the first night of the Democratic National Convention, his Gallup approval rating jumped from 47/47 to 49 percent approve, 45 percent disapprove. By the end of the convention it had risen to 52/42, a high Obama had not achieved since Osama bin Laden was killed in May 2011 (which got mentioned quite a lot last week by the way).

Obama’s Gallup head-to-head numbers followed his approval numbers up, from 47/46 when the convention started, to 50/44 today. But his approval rating is already coming back down to earth. It fell from a net +10 Saturday to just a net +6 (50/44) Sunday. Just as Obama’s approval rating was a leading indicator of Obama’s head-to-head match-up gain on the way up, expect his falling approval rating to be a leading indicator on the way down.