As the coronavirus approached its peak in New York and other hard-hit parts of the country, many people looked to Florida as the next hot spot. I was one of them. I argued back in April that Gov. Ron DeSantis’s hesitation to adopt early, statewide preventive measures could become problematic, given the rising number of confirmed cases in heavily populated areas, such as Miami, and rural hospitals’ lack of preparedness.
But the anticipated disaster never occurred. The worst of the state’s outbreak has thus far been contained in a handful of populous South Florida counties. The average of new cases has steadily declined over the past few weeks, and the average of new deaths has largely plateaued.
The question is: Why? How did Florida avoid what seemed like an inevitable crisis, while other parts of the country have floundered? We might not know for a long while yet. But for right now, there’s something to be said of Florida’s strategy and the way in which Floridians responded to it.
Despite recommendations from health officials, DeSantis did not implement a statewide shelter-in-place order until April 3. But recent data reveal that the state shut itself down anyway. Floridians began staying home en masse in mid-March, according to cellphone data obtained by the Wall Street Journal, and many businesses decided to close their doors voluntarily. By March 15, Floridians’ mobility had declined by more than 50% statewide, and in Miami-Dade and Broward counties, it had declined by more than 80%.
The state also relied on a more targeted approach when it did shut down. DeSantis began by shutting down nursing homes and assisted living facilities and deferred to localities when it came to implementing restrictions. This approach gave hard-hit counties such as Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach the freedom to shut down businesses while allowing rural counties that had not been nearly as affected by the outbreak to operate under some sense of normalcy.
There are several other factors that contributed to Florida’s successful response, as well, including the state’s tropical climate, which some medical experts believe might help mitigate the spread of COVID-19. It is also possible that Florida was “heavily seeded” back in January and/or February, according to Dr. Scott Gottlieb, the former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, which means Floridians might have developed some sort of herd immunity to the virus before the curve peaked.
Florida isn’t in the clear yet, according to health officials. The state is still way behind in mass testing, and Florida’s nursing homes are still experiencing a disastrous number of confirmed cases, said Charles Lockwood, the dean of the University of South Florida’s Morsani College of Medicine, at a news conference with DeSantis last week. But DeSantis is hopeful that a gradual, targeted reopening will help the state get back on its feet.
There’s a lot we still don’t know about this virus, but Florida is proving to be an important case study in what we might have gotten wrong and what we might have done differently. Localized, targeted shutdowns, coupled with trust in the citizenry, was the right approach in Florida. And it might have been right for much of the country, too.
