Tensions between China and India continue to boil over along the two nations’ contested “line of control” border. Conflict between the nuclear powers is an increasing possibility.
Given the enveloping concerns over national pride, territorial interest, and leadership credibility, the ingredients for escalation are abundant. The conflict threatened to boil over back in June, when more than a dozen Indian soldiers were killed in a melee with their Chinese counterparts. Diplomats have sought to cool tensions since then, but they have not been successful.
Evincing as much, Beijing and New Delhi traded blame on Tuesday over an interaction by their respective forces in Jammu and Kashmir’s eastern border region. India claims that Chinese People’s Liberation Army forces attempted to intimidate an Indian patrol into retreating. When the Indian Army refused to move, Chinese forces apparently fired into the air. Conversely, China says the Indian patrol fired into the air with a “very vile nature.” Both sides deny firing. But irrespective of responsibility, any exchange of gunfire would be the first time in 45 years.
So, what’s going on? Why can’t the two sides sit down and forge a compromise over control of the sparsely populated area in question?
One complication is the PLA’s deployment of its more aggressive officers into the contested border area. Resorting to regular screaming at their Indian counterparts, trust and corollary deconfliction channels are lacking. For the PLA, which is keen to earn Xi Jinping’s continued favor, the showdown with India is a crucial test of resolve and capability. Put simply, its officers are highly reluctant to appear being perceived as weak or unable to contest territory with the Indian military. The PLA is also motivated by propaganda narratives that present its role as the deliverer of a grand Chinese destiny.
At the specific military level, both sides are trying to undermine the other’s effort to formalize conditions on the ground in their tactical favor. As the Times of India notes, Indian forces have recently consolidated their position in mountain observation posts, giving New Delhi strongholds with which to resist Chinese incursions and hold at risk any PLA formations which might attempt to move against Indian bases in the area. India has also bolstered the capabilities of its specialized XVII Corps. Consisting of 70,000 troops trained in mountain warfare, the Corps is designed to counter China’s overmatching infantry, artillery, and armored formations.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping have their own reasons not to back down. Both leaders situate their foreign policies in a vision of expansive influence and power around the world. But both leaders also rely on carefully constructed domestic narratives of nationalist prestige. To be seen to give in would be to risk jeopardizing their credibility.
Where does this leave us?
Ultimately, while a nuclear exchange remains very unlikely, the possibility of a conventional border conflict is growing.
