The Iowa caucus will finally begin the 2024 election cycle. While the results for tonight may be up in the air, one thing is almost certain: Nikki Haley does not have a real path to the GOP nomination.

The final Des Moines Register-NBC News-Mediacom Iowa poll paints a rosy picture for Haley with its top-line result. Haley is at 20%, a 4-point rise since December, above Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) at 16%. Combine that with Haley within striking distance of former President Donald Trump in New Hampshire, and you could assume that Haley is not only the leading alternative to Trump but a real contender to win the nomination.