News of the Russian capture of Avdiivka and a subsequent Russian advance in Ukraine has increased concerns about Ukraine’s prospects in its war with Russia.

It is tempting to rely on movement along the battle lines as an indicator of relative success. Yet, victory is unlikely to be decided by the ebb and flow of territory. The real test is what the side that is capturing a town pays in lives and treasure. Just because someone “bought” something, that does not mean they made a wise purchase. Russia may even be experiencing buyer’s regret.