News that Sarah Palin was launching a nationwide bus tour has renewed speculation that she’s going to launch a presidential bid later this year, but I’m not convinced.

While the tour could represent the initial stages of a presidential campaign, it could just as well be an publicity tour. Over the past few months, Palin hasn’t been in the news as much as she had been in 2009 or 2010. Part of that had to do with other news developments — the Arab uprisings, the killing of Osama bin Laden, and the brief Donald Trump boomlet. But the major reason why she hasn’t been in the news much is that most political reporters have been assuming she isn’t going to run.