Chinese President Xi Jinping has told the People’s Liberation Army to be ready to conquer Taiwan by the year 2027. Most U.S. military and intelligence analysts believe Xi will attempt such an invasion before this decade is out. Xi views Taiwan’s subjugation under the Chinese Communist Party flag as a requirement of his personal destiny and the party’s political destiny.

The stakes are significant. Taiwan’s fall would make China the unquestionably dominant force in the Pacific. China’s victory would also cause major damage to the security and prosperity of American allies such as South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines. It would upend the Pacific-global trade system and gravely damage the crucial global semiconductor industry. These factors make it possible, if not probable, that the United States would help defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack. President Joe Biden has said as much four times now (even if his staff has walked back his comments each time).