In the first quarter of 1992, the year Bill Clinton defeated incumbent President George H.W. Bush on a message that “It’s the economy, stupid,” the U.S. economy grew at a rate of 4.5 percent. This morning, the U.S. Department of Commerce reported that first quarter GDP growth was just 2.2 percent. As he gears up for a campaign swing, President Obama is running for reelection with among the worst economic data of any post-World War II incumbent.
I put together the following table of every incumbent president seeking reelection since 1948, when quarterly economic data was available. The growth rate announced today is the third lowest first quarter, trailing only President Carter, who lost in 1980, and President Eisenhower, who won in 1956. But if you look to the next column, you’ll see that in 1956, even though the economy shrunk in the first quarter, unemployment was just 4.2 percent in March. By contrast, the current unemployment rate is 8.2 percent, which is the worst of any March during a reelection year.
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To be sure, these numbers are just a snap shot. The first quarter GDP number may still be revised upward and, of course, there’s still a long time until November. Obviously, as with any election, there are a lot of moving parts. For instance, you’ll see that in the first quarter of 1976, the economy shot up 9.4 percent. However, in addition to facing high unemployment and inflation, President Ford was running for reelection in the shadow of Watergate and his pardon of Richard Nixon.
The bottom line is that unless the economy makes significant strides over the next six months, history suggests Obama will have a lot tougher time winning reelection than current polls suggest.
