After 18 months of fighting, Pokrovsk, a Ukrainian town once home to 60,000 people, has been reduced to ruins. Russian forces control most of the town and have continued efforts to encircle Ukrainian troops still holding out in its western districts. Pokrovsk will likely fall. But its capture will not change much in the broader course of the war.

The Institute for the Study of War noted this week that Russia will likely seize Pokrovsk, but only after taking more time and suffering greater losses than it would if it had concentrated its resources elsewhere. Pokrovsk has been a key Russian target since the fall of Avdiivka in February 2024. The Kremlin’s troops have since advanced roughly 40 kilometers northwest, at a cost of enormous casualties.