In Budapest eight months ago, I heard many hopeful Hungarian conservatives point out that Hungary had risen from the bottom of European birth rates to almost the top.
They credited the administration of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who had implemented all sorts of pro-family policies, including lots of cash, accommodations, and tax breaks for parents.
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But already back then, there were reasons to worry whether Hungary really was resisting the global collapse in birthrates. In 2024, its birthrate had fallen and was closer to the middle of the European pack than the top. The 2025 numbers so far are dreadful.
Hungary’s total fertility rate is down to 1.30 babies per woman, way down from 1.51 in 2023, which itself is far lower than the United States.
Compare Hungary to its neighbors — Slovakia, Slovenia, Austria, Croatia, Serbia, and Romania. Among those countries, Hungary is tied for the lowest birthrate with Austria. Hungary, by far, has a greater two-year decline than any of its neighbors, with a 14% drop compared to a weighted average of about 2.3% across those other six countries.
Hungary’s 10-year fertility drop, which includes many years of family policy, is 10%, worse than five of its six neighbors.
Why is this happening?
I have a couple of theories.
First, it’s possible that Hungary’s rise in the birthrate from 2011 to 2021 was not entirely due to an increase in babies born, but just a question of babies being born earlier. Demographers call this a “tempo effect.” It will look like everyone is having more babies if new incentives suddenly push a lot of 20-somethings to have children sooner than they otherwise would have.
This is a good thing, but it doesn’t fix the problem of a low and falling birthrate.
Second, it’s also possible that Orbán’s falling approval rating is dragging down the birthrate. When he won the elections in 2022, it was after many years of very high approval ratings. He had a 23-point net positive rating in April 2021.
But since 2022, his popularity has fallen (10 points underwater in a 2025 poll), and it’s especially low among 20-somethings who lean more toward secular Europe than Hungary’s Catholic past. The more the government promotes family, the more young Hungarians might associate marriage and baby-making with Orbán, which could be a significant negative these days.
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A third point: Hungary’s most aggressive recent move in family policy was a tax break for working mothers. This looks like a family subsidy, but it’s really a work subsidy — stay-at-home mothers don’t benefit from it at all.
Some of Hungary’s methods might be worth adopting in the U.S., where we have our own baby bust. And speeding up the tempo of births is a good thing. But recent numbers suggest that Orbán has not found the key to a 21st-century baby boom.
