Peace talks on ending Russia’s war on Ukraine are likely to collapse once Russia rejects binding security guarantees for Ukraine. Russia entered this war to break Ukraine’s capacity to defend itself. A secure Ukraine defeats the entire purpose of President Vladimir Putin’s strategy.

A Ukraine backed by enforceable commitments, sustained Western military support, and credible deterrence would remain outside of Russia’s domination. Security guarantees are, therefore, what the talks most hinge on. If and when negotiations fail, it will be a confirmation that Russia is fighting this war not because of NATO expansion or Russia’s security concerns, but because it hopes to limit Ukraine’s sovereignty. That failure will demonstrate Moscow’s real intentions: to subjugate its neighbors and challenge American power.