The arrest of China‘s top uniformed military officer and a separate member of the Central Military Commission decreases the short-term threat of a Chinese attack on Taiwan (2026). But it likely increases the medium-term threat (2027-2030). Zhang Youxia is accused of corruption and of undermining the Communist Party’s interests.

His downfall is a big deal. Respected in the People’s Liberation Army for his 58 years of service, Zhang’s combat experience in the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese war and a bloody skirmish between the two countries in 1984 was highly valued. Unlike the rising officer ranks of the U.S. military, most of whom have seen extensive combat in Afghanistan, Iraq, and other operations, the PLA is bereft of combat-experienced personnel.