The Texas Senate race has been a growing red flag for Republicans heading into the 2026 midterm elections, and it looks like the news from the Lone Star State just keeps getting worse.

First, the good news: Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) is the leading candidate for the Democratic nomination. In a poll from the University of Texas’s Texas Politics Project, Crockett leads Democratic state Rep. James Talarico by 12 points. Crockett is an incredibly polarizing, unlikeable candidate, a far easier general election opponent than Talarico for a Republican to fundraise against, mobilize the GOP base against, and win over swing voters.