The success of Operation Epic Fury, the U.S. air and missile campaign being waged jointly with Israel against Iran, depends on two things: precision weapons and accurate intelligence. Pentagon shortages of cutting-edge ordnance, which is expensive and inherently slower to replace than is commonly understood, are already causing concerns.

If this operation continues longer than the four weeks which President Donald Trump claims will be necessary to bring the Islamic Republic to its knees, Pentagon stockpiles will be in big trouble. The U.S. military is expending high-end missiles, including Terminal High Altitude Area Defense and Patriot interceptors, the Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile, plus ship-launched missiles such as the SM-2, SM-3, and SM-6 at an unprecedented pace. However, there’s also a real chance that the United States and Israel will run out of high-priority targets inside Iran before we expend all our modern missiles.