Expect oil prices to drop in July

Published April 3, 2026 6:00am ET



President Donald Trump, in his address to the nation Wednesday evening, caught oil markets flat-footed. Rather than signaling an early end to the Iran war, Trump said that the U.S. military would intensify its campaign against Iran for the next two to three weeks. Borrowing rhetoric from the Cold War, Trump said that the United States would “bomb Iran back to the Stone Age.”

Oil prices, both West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, and Brent crude, the global price, surged. On Thursday, WTI was trading at around $112 a barrel. Trump’s words shifted market expectations about the outlook for oil over the next several months. Prices will be higher than expected, and America’s drivers will be paying over $4.00 a gallon for gasoline well into the summer. Economic growth will slow, but recession risk will remain low.

Already a print subscriber? Click here to login/register your account

Trusted reporting.Unlimited access.

Subscribe for full access to Washington Examiner coverage, expert political analysis, and subscriber-only journalism.

Get Unlimited Access

Already a member? Log in

Cancel anytime.