Will Viktor Orban fall in Hungary's elections?

On April 12, Hungarians will vote in the most important European election of 2026. For the first time since Viktor Orban consolidated power in 2010, the prime minister faces a challenger capable of unseating him. Peter Magyar, a former Fidesz insider who broke with the ruling party in 2024, has built the Tisza Party from a protest vehicle into the leading force in Hungarian politics.

A poll by 21 Kutatokozpont, published on April 1, placed Tisza at 56% among decided voters and Fidesz at 37%. The aggregated PolitPro trend puts the gap at roughly 8 points, and even Nezopont Intezet, a pollster with close government ties that has consistently shown Fidesz ahead, concedes the race has tightened.