A crisis of deepening fuel and goods shortages is afflicting Russia on the Crimean Peninsula. But it’s only going to get worse. Russia cannot successfully defend its occupation of the Ukrainian territory against Kyiv’s increasing attacks.

This reflects a broader strategic reality. Namely, that contrary to President Vladimir Putin‘s stoic claims of steady progress, Russia’s war in Ukraine is going very badly for the Kremlin. Russian forces are taking massive casualties (with more than 350,000 combat deaths since the war began in February 2022) to secure only localized territorial gains. At the same time, Ukrainian drones are increasingly operating with freedom across all of northwestern and western Russia. Recent weeks have seen remarkable strikes on Putin’s home city of St. Petersburg, just as a major marquee international conference began. We’ve seen escalated strikes on Russian fuel depots and military factories. And we’ve seen black smoke, visible all across the Russian capital, born of Ukrainian attacks on Moscow’s energy infrastructure.