The reinvigorated war with Iran has sparked new oil price increases. In ordering a restoration of the U.S. blockade on Iranian oil exports and new strikes on Iranian military sites, President Donald Trump is pressuring Iran to return to the negotiating table and abide by the recently agreed-upon ceasefire. Trump’s key priority is an end to Iranian attacks on international shipping in the Strait of Hormuz energy chokepoint. But Trump also senses that Iran is meeting increasing pressure from the international community, including from its partners.

Trump’s logic is sound. The Iranian hard-liner elite centered on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps anticipated that Trump’s desperation to end the war-related economic turmoil would lead him to grant both generous sanctions relief and tolerance for continued Iranian attacks on commercial shipping. The hardliners have failed to recognize that the United States and, to a lesser but still significant degree, the international community, have adapted to their threat. Put simply, Iranian attacks are producing reduced economic shockwaves. Put another way, the Iranians have overplayed their hand. In the end, Trump’s only option in the face of Iran’s blatant disingenuousness was a return to military force.