Albeit frustrated that Iran hasn’t negotiated an end to the war, President Donald Trump increasingly believes that the United States has assumed the initiative over the Islamic Republic. In a social media post on Monday, Trump asserted that “IRAN IS COMPLETELY COLLAPSING!!!” Trump also told Fox News last week that Iran needs to “put up the white flag of surrender.”
Trump’s new confidence underlines his willingness to let the economic challenges facing Iran play out. That stands him in contrast to ultra-hawk supporters of the president, such as Mark Levin, who seek a return to full-scale war.
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A key cause for Trump’s optimism is the damage being done to Iran by the U.S. Navy blockade of its oil and other sea-based exports. This blockade has effectively crippled Iran’s ability to generate foreign capital. Inflation is soaring, goods shortages are growing, and the regime fears a boiling point of new public protests. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent sought to advance this pressure by announcing new sanctions on Iran.
True, being that the Iranian regime retains a domestic monopoly on the use of force, any uprising is unlikely to lead to regime collapse. Still, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei does not want to grapple with strife at home and a war abroad simultaneously. The blockade thus offers Washington a growing leverage point to push Tehran into an agreement that reopens the Strait of Hormuz and addresses the regime’s nuclear threat. It should be noted, here, that the president revels in U.S. intelligence community analysis on economic matters. His comments thus hint that the blockade is slowly bolstering the influence of regime officials who, unlike the ultra-hardliner Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, want a diplomatic resolution to the conflict.
Another source of Trump’s self-assurance is the improving situation at the Persian Gulf’s Strait of Hormuz energy chokepoint.
As CNN reported last Wednesday, oil tanker transits through the strait are increasing. Using waters proximate to Oman that are better protected by the U.S. Navy and further away from Iranian missile and drone forces, more tanker crews are gambling that they can make the passage safely. These crews are also playing the Iranians at their own game, turning off their location transponders and making ship-to-ship transfers to smaller vessels once in the safety of the Arabian Sea. At the broader diplomatic level, it also bears noting that regional powers and much of the international community now blame Iran over Trump for the war’s continuation.
Another benefit for Trump is the success of major oil producers such as Saudi Arabia in diverting oil flows away from the Persian Gulf export terminals and into land-based pipeline routes to the Red Sea. The Trump administration now estimates that, on a total basis, regional energy exports stand at 75% of their pre-war levels. Whether this figure is entirely accurate or not, supplies are clearly significantly up. Diversification efforts, both in terms of military tactics and energy transit activity, are paying dividends. Momentum is shifting away from Iran.
Things may change, of course. Iran may return to intensive strikes on regional oil and natural gas infrastructure. Yemen’s Houthi rebels may ramp up their targeting of energy supplies in the Red Sea. These actions would certainly increase pressure on oil prices and create political difficulties for Trump in advance of the November midterm congressional elections. Yet, escalation would also carry risks for its purveyors.
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The Houthis suffered significant losses during their conflict with the U.S. in 2025 and would fear similar destruction amid renewed fighting. They are focused on protecting their port access and supply chains, and on maintaining a fragile ceasefire with the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. The Houthis want to buy time to consolidate their position. Iran similarly appears to judge the prospective benefits of escalation as outweighed by the risks of intensive U.S. and Israeli military action. Iran knows it cannot win a full-on fight with the U.S. that would risk regime collapse, so it prefers a strategy of calibrated pressure (the U.S. also fears that, amid the absence of a credible opposition movement, a full-on fight would lead to a disaster scenario of Iranian state collapse).
None of this is to say that Trump was right to launch this war. It was always a foolish gambit, one that has predictably weakened America’s ability to resist China’s far more important military threat. But Trump’s confidence that a resolution may be on the horizon isn’t the product solely of imagination. Rather, it reflects Iran’s loss of the strategic initiative.
