On the best of days, war is no cake walk. The best laid plans go out the window as soon as the fight begins. The 2026 Iran war is only the latest case in point. President Donald Trump likely expected a Venezuela-style decapitation, but the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stymied that hope. Trump then placed his hopes on Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, but Ghalibaf was no Delcy Rodriguez. While the Venezuelan vice president had positioned herself to step in after U.S. forces snatched Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, Ghalibaf had no such power: His ambition came without popular or institutional support.

With Iran now again attacking shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. military is edging closer to seizing the islands that the Iranian Navy uses to stage small boat and drone attacks on international shipping. Perhaps the three most strategic islands are Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tonb Islands. Abu Musa sits in the middle of the northern approach to the Strait of Hormuz, while the Tonb Islands sit within the shipping lanes. Their strategic position, combined with the territorial waters that they derive, is the reason Iran seized the islands in 1971, as the British evacuated and prepared to hand them over to the Emiratis. Abu Musa is just 50 miles from the coast of Iran and 40 miles from the coast of the United Arab Emirates. It lies only 10 miles from the Strait of Hormuz, and tanker traffic must pass between it and the Tonb Islands, giving Iran strategic leverage.