Iran launches cyberattacks against the U.S. and successfully impacts water supplies in 12 states. China sends Iran 400 shoulder-fired rocket launchers to down U.S. airplanes. Russian diplomats threaten Europe that support for Ukraine is an act of war. Moscow greenlights Russian jets invading European airspace, and its navy fires live artillery in the English Channel. Underwater cables are severed by Russia’s trawler fleet while its GRU agents coordinate violent, including lethal, sabotage campaigns across the continent.

Last week the CIA cautioned, as had been predicted, that President Vladimir Putin may challenge NATO by staging attacks in the Baltics or Poland. Putin calculates he can undermine NATO’s credibility by taking action, which would bring the alliance to the brink of invoking Article 5, the mutual defense provision that means an attack on one member state is an attack on all. He’s counting on NATO’s nervous nellies refusing to honor Article 5 if his target is Eastern Europe and his offensive is limited in scope. Making NATO appear toothless in the face of Russian provocation will splinter its cohesion and simultaneously make Europe’s leaders fearful of supplying Ukraine with weapons.