A new Rasmussen survey that Michael Barone was first to report, finds Texas Gov. Rick Perry surging into the lead for the Republican presidential nomination, but it also suggests he’s drawing support from Mitt Romney, Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., and Herman Cain.
Here’s how the current candidates do in the current Rasmussen survey, with parentheses being the difference relative to the same poll taken two weeks ago:
Perry 29% (+ 11)
Romney 18% (-4)
Bachmann 13% (-3)
Paul 9% (+1)
Cain 6% (-3)
Gingrich 5% (-1)
Santorum 1% ( +1)
Huntsman 1% (-1)
Note: Tim Pawlenty polled at 3 percent in the prior poll, but is no longer being included.
As has been noted a number of times, Perry’s prospects for winning the nomination rest on finding the sweet spot between the executive experience of Romney and the conservative appeal of Bachmann (and to a lesser extent, Cain). This first poll suggests he’s doing just that.
It’s also worth noting that while Romney may still win the nomination, this poll is further confirmation that his support is very soft. The former Massachusetts governor was at 33 percent in the poll in mid-June, and has thus lost 15 points since then. The quick embrace of Perry suggests Republican primary voters don’t want Romney to be their nominee if they can help it.
Two important caveats. 1) There’s a lot of time between now and the first primary, and voters are still learning about Perry. 2) As we saw with Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton in 2007, national polling doesn’t mean anything, what matters is polling in the early primary states. If Perry has trouble overtaking Bachmann in Iowa or Romney in New Hampshire, it’ll be a different race.
