Donald Trump’s campaign apparatus made it clear at just past 4:00 this afternoon in Cleveland, if anyone was in doubt, that it had solid control of this 41st Republican National Convention.
The question was whether the convention, in an afternoon session that began at 1:00 (fewer viewers in the afternoon, you know) would accept the report of the Rules Committee. That committee rejected a so-called conscience amendment which would have declared that delegates could vote for whatever candidate they liked, regardless of state law, state party rules or the votes cast by the voters in primaries or caucuses. Others, notably former Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, objected to other provisions, including a change from 2012 that would prevent the Republican National Committee changing delegate allocation provisions between this national convention and the next one.
Just after 4:00 the presiding officer, Rep. Steve Womack of Arkansas, recognized a delegate who asked for a roll call vote on the rules. Thunderous and prolonged ayes, somewhat less thunderous nays; Womack ruled, correctly in my view, that the ayes had it. Then he recognized a delegate who asked for a roll call vote, which would be required if a majority of delegates from eight states (or possibly seven, there is some question about the number) or territories signed petitions asking for them. The anti-Trump forces, Womack announced, did assemble the signatures of a majority of delegates from nine states or territories. But, he continued, enough delegates withdrew their signatures in three states, so that the motion for a roll call failed. At which point the gavel fell and the rebellion ended. It was clear Trump had a majority of delegates. And it was clear his team would control the convention proceedings from here on out.
Give credit for this (or blame, if you want) to Paul Manafort and Donald Trump’s decision to appoint him campaign manager. Manafort, according to his 1980s consulting business partner and off-and-on Trump consigliere Roger Stone, is “the best delegate counter there is. He’s the best convention politician since Bill Timmons.”
For things to work out as they did, Manafort had to organize a crack staff that could keep track of all 50-plus delegations, get the names of delegates signing petitions immediately, get to them and use whatever pressure and arguments might work to persuade them to withdraw their signatures. All this had to take place out of the eyes of the press. My Washington Examiner colleagues David Drucker and Joel Gehrke report that the three delegations from which majority-making numbers of signatures were withdrawn were the District of Columbia, Maine and Minnesota. Caucus voters in Maine favored Ted Cruz over Trump by 46 to 33 percent; while Marco Rubio won the caucuses in D.C., by 37 to 36 percent over John Kasich, with 14 percent for Trump, and Minnesota, by 36 percent to 29 percent for Cruz and 21 percent for Trump.
One interesting question, which reporters will presumably try to track down, is who withdrew their signatures and at whose behest. Another interesting question is why Trump wanted to prevent the roll call; my guess is that Manafort didn’t want one or two hours of not-entirely-choreographicable television footage including anti-Trump tirades. Better to recess the session around 5:00 and assemble three hours later. My conclusion is that Manafort and company are running this convention very shrewdly, with very good communication lines — and also with the unstated message “we are going to prevail.”
There was plenty of energy in the shouted nays and, even more, the shouted ayes at the convention. But I didn’t hear in them the note of bitterness and antagonism that was so apparent at the Democratic National Conventions at Chicago in 1968 or New York in 1980. In the hall after the session was ended, I talked to Louisiana Republican vice-chairman Lenar Whitney, originally a supporter of Scott Walker and Ted Cruz. “I didn’t lobby the delegates” on the roll call issue, she said, “but I knew where the delegates were.” Louisiana was prime hunting ground for anti-Trump forces; as Whitney said, its delegates were split proportionately according to its primary vote (Trump 41 percent, Cruz 38 percent, Rubio 11 percent). But a majority of its delegates never signed the roll call petition.
My tentative conclusion is that a majority of delegates are enthusiastic for Trump, that a sizeable minority are opposed but resigned to his nomination and have lost their urge to fight, and that Manafort’s convention operation seems certain to keep things under control and to present the television program they want. If, that is, Manafort and company can keep the candidate under control.
