That Magellan poll showing Mitt Romney statistically tied with Newt Gingrich in New Hampshire may be an outlier, the one poll in 20 that statistical theory tells us is wrong. New Hampshire polling since August has shown Romney at the 40% level; the Magellan poll has him at 29%, narrowly ahead of Gingrich’s 27%.

But the Romney people evidently don’t think Magellan is an outlier, or aren’t willing to take a chance. That is my conclusion as I read Jeff Zeleny’s New York Times story that Romney is intending to make a big effort in Iowa. Zeleny notes that the Romney folks are, finally, opening a statewide headquarters in a former Blockbuster store on Ingersoll Avenue in Des Moines, and reports that Romney supporters are getting in touch with Iowans who supported him in the 2008 precinct caucuses. Romney has made appearances in Iowa on only four days this year, according to the Des Moines Register’s candidate tracker. He was in Des Moines on August 10 and 11, but didn’t stick around two days for the August 13 straw poll in Ames, 30 miles away. But the Romney candidate has now scheduled candidate appearances in December in preparation for the January 3 caucuses. And Zeleny quotes Romney operatives as saying that no other campaign has got a serious on-the-ground organization.