You may have seen the headlines recently: “Social Security, Medicare to Run Short of Funds in 2033, Trustees Say.” Last year, the date was 2034, so doomsday is getting closer.

However, beneath those headlines simmers a more chronic problem. Uncle Sam’s long-term diagnosis for the health of Social Security relies on a completely unreasonable assumption that the birth rate, which is currently low and falling, will magically rebound to levels 20% higher than today’s.