One of the oldest cliches in political commentary is that American elections boil down to turnout. It’s an old cliche because it’s true. Especially in a midterm setting, the party whose base is more engaged has a distinct advantage, particularly if independents are breaking its way, too. This appears to be the case for Democrats in 2026.
But a glimmer of hope for the GOP could rest on even a marginal uptick in base enthusiasm and participation in red states. As noted elsewhere, Democrats are attempting to gain seats in a slew of states President Donald Trump carried by 11-14 percentage points two years ago to win control of the Senate. The difference between Democrats having a realistic shot at pulling off this heavy lift and falling short is whether the structural Republican advantage in these places asserts itself.
