Abdul el Sayed was supposed to win the Michigan Democratic Senate primary by a comfortable margin this summer, but the polls missed what was really brewing on the ground. An expected 10-point romp turned into a nail-biter; he won by roughly 1 percentage point.

That underperformance was driven by a coalition of relative moderates, Jewish Democrats, and black voters who nearly empowered Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI), the “establishment” candidate in the race, to pull off the upset.

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