The memorandum of understanding that the Trump administration has signed with the remaining leadership of the Islamic Republic of Iran has nothing to do with nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles, or state-sponsored terrorism. It has everything to do with the fact that the United States failed in its military objective to control the Strait of Hormuz, giving Iran a chokehold on the global economy.

To put it as starkly as possible, even after all the damage and death President Donald Trump inflicted on the Iranian regime, the simple reality is that Iran is currently able to inflict more pain on us than we are willing to inflict on them. That is why the terms of the deal are so lopsided in favor of Iran. Trump is dealing from a position of weakness. The only question is how much bad Iranian behavior Trump will be willing to tolerate before he reestablishes force as a credible deterrent.