The most intensive air campaign of the 21st century is draining the American coffers, a factor that analysts are increasingly worried about.
Precision munitions, in particular, are immensely costly. These expenses have been laid bare during the assault against Iran. According to three U.S. officials speaking with the Washington Post, the United States ate through $5.6 billion worth of munitions during the first two days of strikes alone.
The total far surpassed what open-source intelligence analysts had guessed — one estimate from Anadolu had the total cost of just munitions in the first 100 hours as $5.82 billion. Much of this estimate came from a U.S. AN/FPS-132 early warning radar that was destroyed by an Iranian missile at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, a system valued at $1.1 billion. The three F-15E Strike Eagles shot down by a Kuwaiti jet cost the U.S. Air Force an estimated $282 million, while three reported downings of MQ-9 Reaper drones are totaled at about $90 million.
Altogether, the amount of destroyed or damaged U.S. hardware in the first 100 hours can be placed at around $2.5 billion. U.S. losses teetered off after the first several days as Iran’s military capabilities were devastated, so no new major losses have been reported.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies gave an estimate of $3.1 billion on munitions for the first 100 hours, another major undercount.
Precision munitions appear to be the biggest cost associated with the operation. The first 48 hours of Operation Epic Fury can be assumed to have been the most expensive, given that the U.S. was likely to have relied on stand-off precision munitions both for opening decapitation strikes and targeting air defense and ballistic missile launchers. As Iranian air defenses were destroyed, the U.S. switched to simpler munitions of much lower cost.
Center for Strategic and International Studies analyst Mark Cancian, who monitors U.S. inventories, told the Washington Post that the switch from long-range munitions to simpler, shorter-range munitions will reduce the amount spent on each from millions to under $100,000.
The air campaign has been noted for its unrelenting intensity, with the number of sorties remaining stable over the next nine days after the initial two.
After the initial surge, congressional sources speaking with MS Now and Politico gave conflicting daily totals of $1 billion and $2 billion spent per day on the war.
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Taking all this data together, the war with Iran can be estimated to have cost a bare minimum of $17.1 billion to $26.1 billion.
A near-exact total may be available in the near future. Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-PA), the ranking member on the House Budget Committee, asked the Congressional Budget Office to analyse the exact cost of Operation Epic Fury, a total likely to be shared as soon as it is compiled.
