President Donald Trump had one requirement for the two-week Iranian ceasefire: Iran had to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to alleviate the economic pain from the war. But now, halfway through the pause in strikes, it is the United States that is shutting down the vital waterway.
Around 20 million barrels of crude oil and other oil products were transited through the strait each day prior to the start of the war, equivalent to 20% of global oil demand, but Iran’s military effectively shut down shipping through the narrow waterway, which has caused oil prices to rise drastically across the globe.
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Iranian leaders have discussed implementing a toll system for waterways off the coast, requiring ships that hope to pass safely to pay. The president’s threat and subsequent plan for the military to conduct its own blockade are meant to take away that leverage.
“We can’t let a country blackmail or extort the world, because that’s what they’re doing,” Trump said Monday. “They’re really blackmailing the world. We’re not going to let that happen. Right now, we have a blockade. They’re doing no business. I didn’t like seeing boats come out if they were doing business with Iran, but if there weren’t, no boats came out. So now Iran is doing absolutely no business, and we’re going to keep it that way very easily.”
As of Monday, the U.S. military began blocking ships going to or from Iranian ports but will allow ships not heading to or coming from Iran to pass freely.
Central Command announced Saturday that the USS Frank E. Peterson and USS Michael Murphy transited the strait and operated in the Arabian Gulf “to ensure the strait is fully clear of sea mines previously laid by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.”
“The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman,” a subsequent statement from CENTCOM reads. “CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.”
The way in which the military intends to carry out the blockade is not entirely clear, however. It is also unclear what could happen to ships that are following just the Iranian blockade or just the U.S. blockade.
“It is unclear what the ‘blockade’ is or how it will be implemented,” Elisa Ewers, a Middle East expert with the Council on Foreign Relations, told the Washington Examiner. “As yet, it doesn’t appear the U.S. has transited more vessels inside the strait. They create a type of cordon to separate between the Iranian shoreline and the Omani shoreline and allow for vessels to hug the Omani coast. That is different than blocking Iranian oil, however.”
Trump’s move will not necessarily result in more ships immediately transiting the strait — rather, it could further reduce traffic in the waterway because both Iran and the U.S. will now be blocking various ships from transiting the area.
Sina Azodi, the director of the Middle East Studies and an assistant professor of Middle East politics at George Washington University told the Washington Examiner, “You could make the argument that, yes, more economic pressure on Iran would theoretically pressure Iranians to loosen their grip, which I personally don’t think knowing Iranians, but on the negative side, what you’re doing is basically creating more chaos and uncertainty in global energy markets.”
While the U.S. and Israeli militaries fought this war largely through an overwhelming aerial campaign, Iran has largely retaliated in the economic realm because it cannot match their military might, which seems to be where Trump is now turning his attention.
If even less oil leaves the region, it could further raise gas prices, but the president seems to be betting that the U.S. can handle the fallout better than Iran or its allies, such as China.
“A full blockade that keeps Iranian produce from moving could be incredibly painful for the regime, certainly,” Ewers told the Washington Examiner, “and it will be more painful the more days it continues, because they have limited amounts of storage to put their oil, and at which point they may have to consider what they continue to pump from their wells.
“It is unlikely a full blockade will be the one thing that kind of breaks through to the regime capitulation, but it could contribute to a continued weakening of the regime.”
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It is unclear what the double blockade will mean for the Islamabad talks that failed to produce a breakthrough over the weekend. Trump’s two-week ceasefire agreement is roughly halfway through, yet it is unclear if the two sides will have additional in-person meetings and, if not, what will happen once the ceasefire expires.
“I think that both sides have a vested interest in avoiding this war, which has apparently become a war of attrition,” Azodi added. “I would suspect there will be more negotiations between Iranians and the Americans.”
