Cuba in the crosshairs: looking for a soft coup?

Published May 21, 2026 7:14am ET



A HISTORIC INDICTMENT: It took 30 years, and comes as the Trump administration is ratcheting up the pressure on Cuba’s leadership to self-deport as the island nation’s economy is crashing and its people are facing a humanitarian crisis.

“Today, the United States announces a historic indictment, charging Raul Castro and five co-defendants for their roles in the February 24, 1996, shoot down of two brothers to the rescue planes,” U.S. Attorney Jason Reding Quinones said at a press conference in Miami, where the indictment, returned by a grand jury in April, was unsealed. “According to the indictment, Raul Castro, then minister of the Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces, authorized and oversaw a military chain of command that ended with Cuban fighter jets firing air-to-air missiles at civilian aircraft over international waters. Those missiles destroyed the planes without warning and killed all aboard.”

“They were not combatants, they were not armed, and they posed no threat,” Quinones said.

The indictment of the former Cuban president was meant to send a message, said acting Attorney General Todd Blanche. “Nations and their leaders cannot be permitted to target Americans, kill them, and not face accountability,” he said. “President Trump is committed to restoring a very simple but important principle. If you kill Americans, we will pursue you no matter who you are, no matter what title you hold, and in this case, no matter how much time has passed.”

For now, it appears the indictment of the 94-year-old Castro is largely symbolic, but it comes as President Donald Trump keeps dropping big hints that regime change could soon be coming to the communist-led island.

TRUMP DOJ INDICTS RAUL CASTRO OVER 1996 SHOOTDOWN OF US CIVILIAN PLANES

TRUMP: ‘WE HAVE CUBA ON OUR MIND’: Citing his strong support in the Cuban community and his friendship with many Cuban Americans, Trump told reporters at Joint Base Andrews, “I think this is a very big day, very important day.”

“I think this was a very big moment for people — not only Cuban Americans but people that came from Cuba, that want to go back to Cuba, people that want to see their family in Cuba,” Trump said, suggesting change was coming.

“We have a lot of expertise in Cuba. And it’s not going to be, like, the biggest thing we’ve ever done, but I will tell you, to a lot of people, it’s going to be one of the most important — they’ve been looking for this moment for 65 years. So we’ll see what happens.”

Asked what’s next for Cuba, Trump responded, “I just can’t tell you that. But we’re there to help.” He also indicated military force may not be needed. “In the meantime, we’re going to have to help them out. They have no way of living. They have no food, they have no electricity, they have no energy at all, but they do have great people.”

“The communist government in Cuba, frankly, is as dead as Jimmy Hoffa,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA), said on Fox News. “They’re gone. And they just don’t know it yet, whether we do it through an invasion or not.”

Fidel Castro, the original Castro, was pretty smart. He was evil, but he was smart. But these asshats since then have just been incompetent,” Kennedy told Fox’s Will Cain. “All they know how to do is oppress people. They take all their money, and they give it to the military and the police and themselves, and to hell with the good people of Cuba.”

TRUMP SAYS ‘WE’RE FREEING UP CUBA’ FOLLOWING RAUL CASTRO INDICTMENT

ENTER THE NIMITZ: While Trump was talking about “freeing up Cuba,” the U.S. Southern Command was announcing the arrival of a U.S. aircraft carrier to the region. “Welcome to the Caribbean, Nimitz Carrier Strike Group!” SOUTHCOM posted on X. 

“The aircraft carrier USS Nimitz (CVN 68), the embarked Carrier Air Wing 17 (CVW-17), USS Gridley (DDG 101), and USNS Patuxent (T-AO 201) are the epitome of readiness and presence, unmatched reach and lethality, and strategic advantage,” the post said. “USS Nimitz has proven its combat prowess across the globe, ensuring stability and defending democracy from the Taiwan Strait to the Arabian Gulf.”

Asked if military action was in the cards, Trump responded “I don’t want to say that,” but added. “There won’t be escalation. I don’t think it needs to be. Look, the place is falling apart. It’s a mess.”

In a Cuban Independence Day video message, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, whose parents were from Cuba, said the U.S. wants to offer Cubans a brighter future. 

“The reason you are forced to survive 22 hours a day without electricity is not due to an oil ‘blockade’ by the U.S. As you know, better than anyone, you have been suffering from blackouts for years,” Rubio said. “The real reason you don’t have electricity, fuel, or food is because those who control your country have plundered billions of dollars, but nothing has been used to help the people.”

“President Trump is offering a new relationship between the U.S. and Cuba. But it must be directly with you, the Cuban people, not with GAESA.” Rubio said, referring to a corrupt company owned by the armed forces, which Rubio said siphons money to the elites. “And, currently, the only thing standing in the way of a better future are those who control your country.”

POLAND OFFERING US ‘FIRSTHAND EXPERIENCE’ TO HELP TRANSITION CUBA FROM COMMUNISM

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TRUMP AWAITS IRANIAN RESPONSE: ‘I’M IN NO HURRY’: As Iran is busy implementing a scheme to collect tolls from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, President Trump insisted there is no urgency to rush the negotiation process.

“I’m in no hurry, I’m dealing,” Trump told reporters. “So we’re going to give this one shot … I’d like to see as few people killed as opposed to a lot. We could do it either way, but — but I’d like to see few people killed.”

“I just wonder whether or not they have the good of the people, because some of the things they’re doing, to me, means they don’t have the good of the people, and they have to have the good of the people,” Trump mused. “There’s a lot of anger now in Iran because people are living so badly. There’s a lot of foment that we haven’t seen before so much. And we’ll see what happens.”

“It’s right on the borderline, believe me. If we don’t get the right answers, it goes very quickly. We’re all ready to go,” Trump said. “We’re dealing with some very good people. We’re dealing with people that are, I think, far more reasonable.”

“Could go very quickly, or a few days. You know, it could be a few days, but it could go very quickly,” he said. “We have to get the right answers. It would have to be a complete, 100% good answers, and if we do, we save a lot of time, energy, and lives, most importantly.”

NETANYAHU’S ‘HAIR ON FIRE’: According to the well-sourced Axios reporter Barak Ravid, President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had a tense phone call Tuesday night, as Trump seems to be leaning toward taking a deal from Iran, rather than continuing the war.

It was “a difficult call,” three sources told Ravid, with one source saying Netanyahu’s “hair was on fire” after the call.

“Anxiety is running high in Jerusalem as officials await President Trump’s next move,” Israeli journalist Guy Azriel posted on X.  Netanyahu has avoided any public criticism of Trump, but privately he’s reported to be concerned that the deal Trump is considering would be “partial and dangerous.”

“Equally worrying for decision-makers in Jerusalem is the prospect of sanctions relief. If billions of dollars flow back into the regime’s coffers, Israeli officials are certain where much of that money will go — and it won’t be to civilian infrastructure or culture,” Azriel reported. “As one official put it to me today: ‘I understand they’re unhappy. Nerves are frayed around the Prime Minister’s Office.’”

For his part, Trump said Netanyahu is not a factor in his calculations. “He’s fine. He’ll do whatever I want him to do,” insisting he’s more popular than Netanyahu in Israel. “I’m right now at 99% in Israel. I could run for prime minister, so maybe after I do this, I’ll go to Israel, run for prime minister.”

ISW: IRAN INSTITUTING A MAFIA-ESQUE PROTECTION RACKET: Meanwhile, according to the Institute for the Study of War, Iran is using the current ceasefire “to normalize Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz” by instituting a multi-tiered fee system which would give Russia and China priority access to the Strait once it reopens, with India and Pakistan in the second tier.

“Other countries are handled on a case-by-case basis, and any vessel that has links to Iranian adversaries is denied access entirely,” the ISW said, citing a report by Reuters. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps would run the toll system. 

“These fees are framed as ‘security’ fees, but the fees are in reality part of a mafia-esque protection racket in which the vessels pay Iran so that the Iranian navy can ‘secure’ the vessels against an attack by the Iranian navy or Iranian shore-based missiles and drones,” the ISW said.

Meanwhile the IRGC has threatened to expand the war “far beyond the region” if strikes resume. 

“This threat almost certainly seeks to deter renewed U.S.-Israeli strikes but could also reflect IRGC planning for a potential future conflict. Iran does possess several capabilities with which it could operationalize these threats, including by conducting terror attacks abroad, disrupting shipping in other chokepoints, or firing ballistic missiles at longer range.”

HIMES: IRAN ‘IN THE DRIVER’S SEAT’: In an appearance on CNN, Rep. Jim Himes (D-CT), top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, accused Trump of greatly overstating how well the war and the current negotiations are going.

“It will surprise nobody to know that Donald Trump, whenever he opens his mouth, massively exaggerates,” Himes said. “What is really problematic here, though, is that, look, we have done grave military damage to Iran. The president is right when he says that the navy is at the bottom of the ocean. They don’t have a lot of planes.”

“But they still retain the capability to do an immense amount of damage to the energy infrastructure in places like the UAE and Qatar. They retain the capability to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, and therefore to force Americans to pay $1.75 more for a gallon of gas,” Himes said. “So, yes, the navy may be at the bottom of the ocean, but make no mistake about who is in the driver’s seat with respect to having the leverage in an ultimate negotiation.”

READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

THE RUNDOWN: 

Washington Examiner: Trump says ‘we’re freeing up Cuba’ following Raul Castro indictment

Washington Examiner: Trump DOJ indicts Raul Castro over 1996 shootdown of US civilian planes

Washington Examiner: Poland offering US ‘firsthand experience’ to help transition Cuba from communism

Washington Examiner: Poland presses Trump on canceled US deployment: ‘We will get answers’

Washington Examiner: Putin visits Xi as leaders celebrate ‘unprecedentedly’ strong relations

Washington Examiner: GOP weighs scrubbing White House security funding from immigration bill over ballroom controversy

Washington Examiner: Officers who defended Capitol on Jan. 6 sue DOJ over anti-weaponization fund

Washington Examiner: US denounces attempted ‘coup’ in Bolivia after left-wing strikers paralyze country

Washington Examiner: US competing with Russia, China, and terror groups for influence across Africa

Washington Examiner: Tom Homan insists ICE is not narrowing deportation agenda

Washington Examiner: Transcript: Washington Examiner’s full interview with White House border czar Tom Homan

Washington Examiner: Opinion: The US and Ukraine will benefit greatly from drone deal

New York Times: Cuba Says It’s Ready to Negotiate

Axios: New Iran peace proposal triggers tense Trump-Netanyahu call

Wall Street Journal: Putin Seeks a Boost From Xi in Beijing as War Effort Falters

AP: US Military Boards Iranian-Flagged Oil Tanker Suspected of Trying to Breach Blockade

Washington Post: Judge orders White House offices to comply with Presidential Records Act

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Chief: MQ-9 Reaper ‘Most Valuable Player’ of Iran War Despite Losses

The War Zone: AC-130J Gunship with Mini Cruise Missiles Paired with AESA Radar to Undergo Tests

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Space Force Study Recommends Third Heavy Launch Site

Breaking Defense: Pentagon CTO Wants to Give Vendors ‘Fast’ Decisions on Buying Tech

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Meink: Long-Range Nuclear Cruise Missile ‘Going Well’ but Entering Critical Phase

DefenseScoop: Lack of Counter-Drone Tech to Cover Troops Patrolling the Southern Border a ‘Concern’ for NORTHCOM Commander

Breaking Defense: Special Ops Leader Says Maduro Mission Set ‘New Standard’

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Asking for $1.5B to Fund E-7 in 2027

Aviation Week: L3Harris Increases OA-1K International Pitch Amid US Uncertainty

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Global Strike Command Launches Minuteman ICBM Test

Washington Post: George Will Opinion: Chronic Pilot Shortages. Ancient Planes. The Air Force Needs Upgrading.

THE CALENDAR: 

THURSDAY | MAY 21 

7:15 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd., Arlington, Va. — Association of the U.S. Army discussion: “The FY2027 Army Budget,” with Maj. Gen. Rebecca McElwain, director, Army budget https://ausa.org/events/coffee-series/fy27-army-budget

8 a.m. 3111 Fairview Park Dr.. Falls Church, Va— Potomac Officers Club Cyber Summit: with Highlights: Defense Department Chief Information Security Officer Aaron Bishop; Robyn Celestino, general counsel in the White House Office of the National Cyber Director; Katherine Sutton, assistant secretary of defense for cyber policy; Michael Duffy, acting federal chief information security officer for the Office of Management and Budget; and Chris Butera, acting executive assistant director for the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency https://www.potomacofficersclub.com/events/2026-cyber-summit/

10:30 a.m. 192 Dirksen — Senate Appropriations Defense Subcommittee hearing: “A Review of the President’s FY2027 Budget Request for the Navy,” with testimony from Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao; Adm. Daryl Caudle, chief of naval operations; and Gen. Eric Smith, commandant of the Marine Corps http://appropriations.senate.gov

11 a.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: “The posture of the Department of the Air Force in review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2027 and the Future Years Defense Program. http://www.armed-services.senate.gov

FRIDAY | MAY 22

10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual discussion: “Military Human Spaceflight: A Key Component to American Space Superiority,” with retired Space Force Col. Kyle Pumroy, senior resident fellow for space studies at the Mitchell Institute https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org/events/military-human-spaceflight

1 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “What Are the Biggest Space Threats in 2026?,” with Kathleen Brett, program analyst for space security and stability, Secure World Foundation; Victoria Samson, chief director for space security and stability, Secure World Foundation; Clayton Swope, deputy director, CSIS Aerospace Security Project; and Kari Bingen, director, CSIS Aerospace Security Project https://www.csis.org/events/what-are-biggest-space-threats-2026