It’s the policies, stupid. That should be the guiding light for everyone trying to figure out the course of the U.S. economy for the rest of the year. As things now stand, in the absence of any dramatic policy shift, the economy should continue on its present path—slow growth, a bit of job creation but not enough to move the unemployment rate more than a tenth of a percentage point or two, a sluggish although perhaps more stable housing sector, and a stock market trying to decide if the world is coming to an end or we are on the brink of a new golden age.

Unfortunately for forecasters, it is impossible to predict whether new policies will be put in place. And, if they are, how long it will take for the shift to make itself felt outside of the world of politics—in the real world in which consumers patrol the aisles of Wal-Marts, investors look for opportunities, and workers look for jobs.