“There are things called models,” Dr. Anthony Fauci explained to CNN’s Jake Tapper in March. “And when someone creates a model, they put in various assumptions. And the model is only as good and as accurate as your assumptions.”

Over the past several months, models attempting to project outcomes have shown their limits. In March, the Imperial College model shocked the world with a projection that, without any interventions, the United States could lose 2.2 million people. The only solution, the paper argued, was widespread lockdown. Any loosening up of these lockdowns, it warned, would lead to a significant surge in cases and the collapse of the healthcare system.