In July 1994, Michael Barone raised the possibility that the Republicans might capture the House of Representatives for the first time in 40 years. Sixteen years later, Barone is revisiting his methodology and seeing what it may portend for November 2, 2010. As you probably already know, things do not look good for the Democrats.

In July 1994, Barone noticed that five incumbent House Democrats were behind Republican challengers. (All five lost.) In July 2010, NRO blogger Jim Geraghty noticed that at least 13 House Democrats are running behind Republican challengers. And according to polling I saw today, some other Republican challengers — including Bobby Schilling, who is challenging incumbent Phil Hare in Illinois 17 — may be closing in. The Hotline reports that 24 incumbent House Democrats commissioned polls in the last quarter but did not release them. Why? Most likely, because the polls were terrible.