President Donald Trump‘s desire to investigate Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is hamstringing his own effort to get Powell replaced by the June Fed meeting.
Kevin Warsh, Trump’s pick to lead the central bank, has his nomination in limbo because Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) is blocking Warsh’s confirmation until the Justice Department drops its controversial investigation into Powell. That could end, and Warsh could be confirmed, if the administration would just drop the matter, but so far, it hasn’t. Trump has made clear he wants the inquiry to proceed.
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And as the days tick closer to Powell’s scheduled departure in mid-May, Republicans might start getting antsy.
“This seems to be just a sideshow that’s never going to produce the results that Trump wants,” Jason Roe, a veteran Republican political consultant, told the Washington Examiner.
Earlier this year, in a video statement, Powell announced he was under investigation by the DOJ for claims he made about the Fed headquarters renovation during congressional testimony. He argued that the inquiry is an effort by Trump to influence interest rate policy, but the Trump administration maintained that it is a legitimate investigation into what amounted to massive cost overruns.
But Tillis, who could delay Warsh joining the Fed board for months, is dug in. He said during Warsh’s confirmation hearing this week that he would be happy to vote for him and have him replace Powell — but won’t do so until the investigation ends.
And the administration, at least for now, also appears unwilling to budge. U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro this week affirmed that the inquiry is moving forward.
“The cost overruns on that building are well over a billion dollars,” Pirro said at a press conference. “This investigation continues.
“I am in the legal lane,” she said. “There are others who are in the political lane. I don’t intersect those two lanes.”
Meanwhile, Republicans on Capitol Hill are hoping that the situation can be worked out and that Warsh can be in place for the Fed’s June meeting.
“I think Warsh will be good when he gets on the board, and the sooner we get there, the better,” Rep. Bryan Steil (R-WI), a member of the Financial Services Committee, told the Washington Examiner.
Some Republicans are blaming Tillis for refusing to let Warsh’s confirmation vote proceed.
“To hijack the U.S. economy for some personal interest, which is what you’re speaking of with Tillis and Powell is really criminal, because hardworking Americans are going to be harmed by not having a Fed chair,” Rep. Andy Ogles (R-TN), another member of the committee, told the Washington Examiner.
Alex Conant, a GOP strategist and a partner at Firehouse Strategies, said that there are “frustrations on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue.
“Trump is never one to give in easily, he doesn’t want to be seen as conceding,” Conant told the Washington Examiner. “But I think Republicans in Congress have legitimate concerns, and we’re at a loggerhead; it’s not clear to me when it will break, but it will break.”
At the heart of the controversy are accusations that Powell misled Congress when answering questions about expensive renovations at the Fed’s Washington headquarters.
The buildings at the center of the renovation, the Eccles Building and 1951 Constitution Avenue, had an estimated renovation budget of $1.9 billion in 2023. By 2025, though, those costs had ballooned to $2.5 billion. Both are located near the National Mall in Washington.
During the hearing, Powell responded to questions about the added costs, including the fact that the remodeling included opulent touches, such as special dining rooms and luxurious marble.
Scott later followed up with Powell in a letter, saying that the only available construction plans for the building appear to contradict some of Powell’s statements and requested further clarification.
After his testimony, some, such as Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL), went further and accused him of lying to Congress. Luna submitted a referral to Attorney General Pam Bondi.
There is very little upside for Trump to continue this investigation.
Trump has been requesting lower interest rates, and the one person who presumably could help lower rates is being locked out the longer Warsh is blocked from the Fed. And even Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), chairman of the Banking committee, has said he doesn’t think Powell committed criminal wrongdoing.
Roe said that there might be a couple of reasons why, despite the circumstances, Trump is still pushing this. It could just be pettiness toward Powell, he said. Another reason could be that the president is sending a message.
After all, Powell was not nominated by a Democrat, but rather by Trump himself during the president’s first term. He and Powell quickly had a falling out over Powell’s refusal to set interest rate policy in a manner that Trump wanted.
Warsh faced questions about whether he would remain independent from the White House’s pressure during his confirmation hearing this week. Warsh said Trump never asked him to commit to any interest rate decisions during his vetting process.
“The president never once asked me to commit to any particular interest rate decision, period,” Warsh testified to Congress. “And nor would I ever agree to do so if he had, but he never did.”
Roe said that the continued pressure against Powell through the Justice Department could be a veiled message to Warsh.
“I think it might even be sending a signal to Warsh of the fealty that he expects from the next Fed chair, and that if he’s willing to dig in on something with very little benefit to him politically, that Warsh probably gets the message that Trump expects him to do as he wishes as Fed chair,” Roe said.
Despite the loggerheads, Conant said he thinks that the situation will be resolved in time to get Warsh at the head of the table for the June Fed meeting. He said that perhaps there will be some sort of compromise or off-ramp.
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For instance, Tillis and Scott have said they would support a congressional inquiry into the construction projects as a replacement for the Justice Department’s current investigation.
“I mean, I think you just have to give something for Trump to point to — and then this can be resolved relatively quickly,” Conant said.
