In his momentous trip to Europe that included a surprise visit to Ukraine and a heralded speech in Poland, President Joe Biden proclaimed “unwavering” support for Ukraine and avowed Russia would “never” win the war. But the truth is that “wavering” has characterized the Biden administration’s approach to Ukraine to date. Moral and strategic prevarication have delimited the U.S. response to Russian genocide and conquest in the heart of Europe. Military aid to Ukraine has been incremental and plodding, while statecraft and oratory to address the terrible atrocities and the threat to freedom itself have been scarce and inadequate. U.S. policies have been oriented toward preventing Ukraine from losing rather than securing Ukrainian victory.

History can be rewritten in the short as well as the long term, and in either case, misleading narratives prevent us from learning valuable lessons and rationally assessing where to go “from here.” Congratulating ourselves on how much the West has done to help Ukraine, how Biden has rallied a strong and united response, and how Russia is suffering severe casualties and setbacks obscures the broader, truer picture, which isn’t so rosy. Why, for example, didn’t the United States and Europe do more to deter Russia’s all-out assault in the first place, and why didn’t they supply Ukraine with advanced weaponry early on? A rationale heard in high circles is that Americans and Europeans “underestimated” Ukraine and thought Russian victory would come swiftly.