My friend Jay Cost (a fellow non-fan of the current Republican nomination system) outlines a scenario in which Donald Trump could lose to Hillary Clinton by an electoral-vote tally of 396 to 142. This is certainly possible, if the Trump campaign goes into a complete tailspin. But if Trump gets out of the current turbulence he has encountered (or has created) and steadies his campaign, the issues of the day favor him. Moreover, he’s not really that far behind.

As of midday on Monday, Trump is behind by between six and seven points in the Real Clear Politics average of recent polling. But RCP’s averages of statewide polling find him doing reasonably well in Florida and Ohio (states he must win), and perhaps surprisingly well in Nevada and Iowa (states where President Obama always won by more than he won by nationally).