Esper has said repeatedly that he’s ready to reduce the current force of roughly 12,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan by between 3,000 and 4,000, if the peace agreement negotiated in Doha, Qatar is implemented, and holds.

“With the peace agreement there will be a reduction to a certain number over time, 8,600 … it’s all conditions-based,” he said. “The 8,600 number is a number the commander feels very comfortable with that we can go down to and still perform all of our missions, whether it’s [counterterrorism or] train, advise, and assist.”

But Esper pushed back against the idea that an eventual peace deal would result in a complete withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces from Afghanistan anytime soon. “No, that’s not what we’re talking about,” he said.

UNTIL THE BITTER END: Meanwhile the Taliban is continuing to launch attacks against Afghan government forces, hitting a checkpoint in Kunduz Sunday night, even as a senior Taliban leader was predicting a signing ceremony would be held in Doha by month’s end.

Abdul Salam Hanafi, deputy chief of the Taliban’s Doha office, was quoted as saying, “We have already initialled the final draft of the peace agreement,” and VOA cited “insurgent sources,” as saying the preliminary “reduction of violence” period would begin Saturday, Feb. 22.

“Soon after signing the peace accord, the United States will release 5,000 of our prisoners and we will free 1,000 of theirs,” Hanafi said, according to Reuters.

Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Susan Katz Keating (@SKatzKeating). Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

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HAPPENING TOMORROW: Secretary of Defense Mark Esper visits Minot Air Force Base, North Dakota and the headquarters of the U.S. Strategic Command in Omaha, Nebraska. At Minot, Esper will tour the 5th Bomb Wing, which hosts B-52 bombers, and the 91st Missile Wing, which operates land-based missiles, two legs of America’s nuclear triad.

At STRATCOM, Esper will meet with the Adm. Charles Richard, commander of U.S. nuclear forces, who in testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee last week disputed criticism that $30 billion the Pentagon is proposing for modernization of the U.S. nuclear arsenal is tantamount to a new arms race with Russia and China.

“I must confess, the whole concept that we’re starting an arms race baffles me, in terms of no nation has done more than the United States to reduce the reliance on nuclear weapons, no nation has divested more nuclear weapons than the United States has,” Richard said. “We have waited 15 years, in some cases, to the absolute limits of what our systems will go before we simply sought to replace like for like inside our triad. So I don’t understand where the concept of an arms race comes in. “

CALLING OUT CHINA: In his address to the Munich Security Conference, Esper focused on China, accusing Beijing of “rampant technology theft,” and calling the Chinese tech firm Huawei “today’s poster child for this nefarious activity.”

“Make no mistake, we do not seek conflict with China. That’s not what we want; not at all. Rather, we seek fair and open competition in the economic realm,” said Esper. “We simply ask of Beijing what we ask of every nation: to play by the rules, abide by international norms, and respect the rights and sovereignty of others.”

“This is why it is critical that, together, we directly and unambiguously address Beijing’s actions and intentions, so that we are never intimidated, duped, or pushed into bad security, economic, or political choices,” he said, as he called for a united response. “And maybe, just maybe, we can get them on the right path.”

“Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi called Pompeo and Esper’s criticisms of China ‘BS’ and ‘lies.’” tweeted the Washington Post’s Josh Rogin. “Says that if those same criticisms were applied to the U.S. they would become facts.”

SIDE TRIP TO IRAQ: After the Munich conference, Armed Services Committee Chairman Sen. Jim Inhofe led a congressional delegation to Iraq, with stops in Baghdad and Erbil. The all-Republican delegation included Sens. MIke Rounds, John Boozman, Kevin Cramer, and Reps. MIke Kelly and Tim Walberg.

The Republican lawmakers were briefed in Baghdad by Army Lt. Gen. Pat White, commander Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve, the name of the U.S.-led counter-ISIS coalition. It was the first congressional visit to Iraq since the U.S. drone strike last month that killed Iranian Quds Force commander Gen. Qassem Soleimani.

“Meeting with Gen. White in Baghdad made it even more clear, the strike against Soleimani was the right call,” Inhofe said in a statement. “The briefings highlighted how his removal seriously disrupted Iran’s state supported terrorist networks in Iraq.”

LARGER IN DEATH: Speaking at the security conference Saturday, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif argued that Soleimani was “murdered” in “a cowardly military attack,” that was “an act of terror.”

“They couldn’t face Soleimani at the warfront, so they hit him when he was conducting a peace mission,” Zarif said, noting Solemani was traveling in a “civilian car.’ Zarif also disputed the U.S. account that two U.S. bases in Iraq were attacked in its reprisal missile attack by Iran, insisting only one base Al Asad was targeted.

Zarif saids the killing of Soleimani stokes genuine outrate in the region. “These are not our proxies. These are human beings who are tired of bullying, who are tired of lawlessness, who want to have dignity,” he said, asserting his death has galvanized anti-U.S. sentiment. “Martyr Soleimani is much more effective than General Soleimani,” he said.

In Munich, Esper said the strike appears to have served its purpose, “It’s fair to say we have seen a change in Iranians’ behavior,” he said. “I think we restored deterrence.”

THEY WANT US TO STAY: Esper says after meeting various Iraqi representatives, he’s convinced most Iraqis don’t want U.S.troops to leave their country.

“I met with the Kurds earlier, they definitely want us there. The Sunnis want us there. And many of the Shia want us there. But the challenge is the politics, given the influence of Iran through their proxies, is weighing heavily on Baghdad and how they move forward,” Esper said in his session with reporters in Munich.

“I believe most Iraqi officials want us there,” he said. “What they want, and that we support, is an independent sovereign, strong, prosperous Iraq. I think that’s what the people in the street want too.”

BOLTON MUZZLED FOR NOW: Former national security adviser John Bolton says he’s being censored by White House while his forthcoming memoir, Room Where It Happened, is undergoing a security review, reports Rob Crilley, in the Washington Examiner.

Speaking to a capacity audience at Duke University, Bolton complained that while Trump was free to tweet about policy, he faced legal action if he spoke out.

“There are portions of the manuscript that deal with Ukraine, I view that like the sprinkles on the ice cream sundae in terms of what’s in the book,” he said. “This is an effort to write history and I did it the best I can. We’ll have to see what comes out of the censorship.”

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: ‘It is dangerous’: France’s Macron startles allies and angers US officials with defense proposals

Washington Examiner: ‘Our collective future may hang in the balance’: Pentagon chief warns Europe about deals with ‘nefarious’ China

Washington Examiner: Cold war: Top EU diplomat foresees ‘a new bipolar order between the US and China’

Washington Examiner: Iranian president: Trump worries war with Iran will ‘ruin’ 2020 chances

Washington Examiner: ‘They’ll be spewed onto Europe’: 3 million Syrian refugees could soon flee Bashar Assad

AP: After gains in northern Syria, Assad predicts total victory

Washington Examiner: Doesn’t ‘reflect reality’: Mike Pompeo rejects German president’s complaint about Trump

Sky News: Munich Security Conference: UK suffered because of its absence

Defense One: Esper Says White House ‘Never’ Pressured Him on JEDI

The Hill: Lawmakers Push Back At Trump’s Pentagon Funding Grab For Wall

Reuters: Coronavirus Slows China’s Belt And Road Push

New York Times: An Afghan Killed 2 Americans. The U.S. Government Issued the Gun.

AP: Iran’s president: Trump doesn’t want war ahead of 2020 vote

Washington Post: Killing of ISIS leader has not hurt group’s operations, says Iraqi Kurdish prime minister

Virginian Pilot: Can A Robot Ship Protect Norfolk From Terrorists?

Washington Post: Saudi-led coalition airstrikes kill more than 30 Yemeni civilians, says U.N., as fighting intensifies

AP: American cruise passengers quarantined at US military bases

Washington Post: Pentagon shaves $6.5 billion by selling obsolete equipment, overhauling bureaucracy

Bloomberg: Army Chief Praises BAE’s Efforts After Signing Off on Howitzer

Bloomberg; The Pentagon’s New Poland-Based Missile Defense System Is Now Four Years Behind Schedule

Washington Examiner: Senators want defense secretary’s support in adding “Lost 74” sailors to Vietnam Memorial

Calendar

TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 18

6:30 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd., Arl. — Association of the United States Army breakfast with Lt. Gen. Thomas Horlander, military deputy to the assistant secretary of the Army (financial management & comptroller). Register at https://www.ausa.org/events/breakfast-series

1 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies conference on “Decision-making and Technology Under the Nuclear Shadow,” with Robert Jervis, professor of international affairs at Columbia University; Peter Singer, strategist and senior fellow at New America; and former Deputy CIA Director Avril Haines, deputy director of Columbia World Projects. http://www.csis.org

4 p.m. 2301 Constitution Ave., N.W. — United States Institute of Peace discussion “Ending Our Endless War in Afghanistan,” with Scott Smith, senior adviser, U.S. Institute of Peace; Stephen Hadley, chair, board of directors, U.S. Institute of Peace, former national security adviser; Michele Flournoy, co-founder and managing partner, WestExec Advisors. Livestream at https://www.usip.org/events

WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 19

All day — Defense Secretary Mark Esper visits two legs of the triad at Minot Air Force Base and U.S. Strategic Command in Omaha, Nebraska. https://www.defense.gov

11: 30 a.m. 1750 Independence Ave. — Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley attends ceremony and wreath presentation to mark the 75th anniversary of the Battle of Iwo Jima, sponsored by Friends of the National World War II Memorial, with Ira Rigger, veteran of World War II and the Battle of Iwo Jima; Jan Scruggs, founder of the Vietnam Veterans Memorial; Navy Chaplain Cmdr. Garry Thornton; and Josiah Bunting, chairman of the Friends of the National World War II Memorial.

2:30 p.m. — American Bar Association webinar “There is a National Emergency at the Southern Border. True or False?” with Erica Newland, counsel at Protect Democracy; Seth Weinberger, professor of politics and government at the University of Puget Sound; Laura Pena, pro bono counsel at the ABA Commission on Immigration; and Engy Abdelkader, chair of the ABA Rights of Immigrants Committee. Register at https://register.gotowebinar.com

9 p.m. 3655 Las Vegas Blvd., Nevada — Democratic presidential primary debate to be aired on NBC and MSNBC.

THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 20

7:30 a.m. 1700 Army Navy Dr., Arl. — National Defense Industrial Association forum on the FY 2021 Defense Department budget, with Stephen Herrera, budget deputy in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Financial Management; Tom Simoes, director of the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Navy for Financial Management and Comptroller’s Investment and Development Division; and Edward Gardiner, assistant deputy commandant for programs and resources at the Marine Corps. https://www.ndia.org/events

9 a.m. 2172 Rayburn -— U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission hearing “China’s Military Power Projection and U.S. National Interests,” with commissioners Larry Wortzel and Jeffrey Fiedler of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission; and Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for China Chad Sbragia. https://www.uscc.gov/hearings

11:00 a.m. 620 L St. N.W., — Daniel Morgan Graduate School discussion “Just War Reconsidered,” with retired Army Lt. Gen. James Dubik, author of Just War Reconsidered: Strategy, Ethics, and Theory. Register at: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/just-war-reconsidered

6:30 p.m. 1957 E St. N.W. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs Kuwait Chair Lecture on “current dilemmas facing U.S. policy in the Persian Gulf,” with Edward Gnehm, vice dean and Kuwait chair at GWU. http://elliott.gwu.edu

FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 21

10:00 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies conversation with the service secretaries, with Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy, Air Force Secretary Barbara Barrett, acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly, and Kathleen Hicks, director, CSIS International Security Program. https://www.csis.org/events/discussion

10 a.m. 740 15th St. N.W. — New America book discussion on “The Bomb: Presidents, Generals, and the Secret History of Nuclear War,” with author Fred Kaplan, national security columnist at Slate; and Peter Bergen, vice president of New America. https://www.newamerica.org/international-security/events/bomb

WEDNESDAY | MARCH 4

9 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. — McAleese Defense Programs Conference. Register at [email protected]