Reality rains on Putin’s parade: Why his V-Day speech was so underwhelming

“That decision likely reflects a fear that doing so would carry domestic political risks both because mobilization would likely be unpopular and because turning the ‘special military operation’ into a ‘war’ could undermine Putin’s ability to determine what counts as a ‘win,’” says John Hardie, a Russia expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

“It’s also possible Putin doesn’t understand the reality facing Russia’s war effort: Absent mobilization, Russia not only is unlikely to take the remaining territory in the Donbas — and even with mobilization would face significant challenges in doing so — but may also struggle to hold already conquered territory in Donbas as Ukraine receives more and more Western equipment and equips additional brigades,” Hardie said in an email. “It’s possible Putin’s advisors aren’t providing him with an accurate picture or he is simply resisting their advice.”

RUSSIA FIRES HYPERSONIC MISSILES AT ‘TOURIST INFRASTRUCTURE’ IN UKRAINE, OFFICIALS SAY

‘GENERAL’ CONSENSUS? PUTIN IS LOSING: There is no shortage of retired U.S. generals weighing in daily on the war in Ukraine, now in its 76th day, and the consensus is that Putin is losing, despite Russia’s ability to inflict devastating damage on Ukrainian cities and kill tens of thousands of civilians. Here’s a sample of the “general” consensus:

Brig. Gen. Steve Anderson, former Army logistics officer: “He’s losing. And he knows it. And I think this speech was a recognition of this,” Anderson said on CNN.

“He began on the 24th of February thinking that he could do a blitzkrieg throughout Ukraine. Of course, that turned into a sitzkrieg. And then he had the battle of Kyiv turned out to be a terrible loss, some 18,000 soldiers killed,” Anderson said. “Now he’s been fighting in Donbas now for the last six or eight weeks, and he’s losing there too. I mean, there has now been very effective counterattacks being launched by the Ukrainians.”

“The Ukrainians are getting stronger every day. They’re getting more and more equipment … more long-range artillery, more drones, more tanks … the Russians, on the contrary, just the opposite. They’re spread way too thin,” he said. “I think Ukrainians are taking it to the Russians.” “Vladimir Putin knows it … I think the only thing he can do is continue to fight in the Donbas as best he can and hang on to what he’s got.”

UKRAINE’S ABILITY TO HOLD OFF RUSSIA BRINGS US FURTHER INTO THE FIGHT

Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commander, U.S. Army Europe: “It could be that there’s a growing realization that they have gone as far as they can,” Hodges said, noting the “underwhelming” Putin speech.

“You are seeing such limited success here over the last two weeks, along the 300-mile front. There’s no obvious main efforts. They are not able to focus their capabilities anywhere,” he said. “And candidly, I think the Russians are close to culminating already. There’s not hundreds of thousands of more troops or new tanks ready to come into the fight … In the coming weeks, I think we’re going to see … a transition to a counteroffensive by Ukraine, and they are going to get Russia back to the 2023 February line, I think, candidly by the end of summer.”

Morale, Hodges says, is a big factor. “On the Russian side … soldiers see that their equipment doesn’t work. They’re issued rations that are expired, all the basic sort of things that indicate that the higher headquarters doesn’t care about what happens to you … So there’s an absence of trust.”

PENTAGON CITES REPORTS RUSSIAN MILITARY HAS ‘REFUSED TO OBEY ORDERS’ IN DONBAS

Gen. Wes Clark, former NATO supreme allied commander: “The ground is still pretty wet there. But when it starts to really dry out — mid-June, July, August — that’s the real campaign season. And if the Ukrainians haven’t received sufficient forces by then, and that means multiple launch rocket systems from the United States, the so-called HIMARS system, which has been talked about but not delivered, aircraft so that they can support the maneuver forces, they’re going to be outmaneuvered by the Russian forces,” Clark said on CNN Saturday.

“There’s no long war strategy possible for Ukraine. They have a window of opportunity in the summer to eject the Russians if they’re given the right support. But when the summer’s over, by the time the Russians have mobilized forces, President Xi has his third term approved in China, China will be freed up to do more to assist Russia.”

“I wish it weren’t so because the administration’s saying the right things, but it’s not giving the right equipment soon enough to the Ukrainians. That’s my personal belief.”

IN VICTORY DAY SPEECH, PUTIN SEEKS RUSSIAN UNITY FOR LONG-TERM STRUGGLE AGAINST WEST

Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

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HAPPENING TODAY: A full slate of national security-themed congressional hearings is on tap, beginning with the latest intelligence assessments about Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea from Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines and Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier. The spymasters testify at 9:30 a.m. before the Senate Armed Services Committee on “Worldwide Threats.”

At 10 a.m., Army Secretary Christine Wormuth and Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville appear before the Senate Appropriations Committee to speak on the Army’s budget and the service’s recruiting woes.

Then, this afternoon, the Senate Armed Services Airland Subcommittee reviews the Army’s modernization efforts at 2:30 p.m. with testimony from Douglas Bush, assistant Army secretary for acquisition, logistics and technology; Lt. Gen. James Richardson, deputy commanding general of the Army’s Futures Command; and Brig. Gen. Michael McCurry, the Army’s director of force development.

Also at 2:30 p.m., the Senate Armed Services Readiness and Management Support Subcommittee and Seapower Subcommittee look at the challenges facing America’s shipyards with testimony from Frederick Stefany, principal civilian deputy assistant Navy secretary for research, development, and acquisition; Vice Adm. William Galinis, commander of the Naval Sea Systems Command; Rear Adm. Troy McClelland, program executive officer for industrial infrastructure; and Diana Maurer, director of defense capabilities and management at the Government Accountability Office.

Finally, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee considers the nomination of Bridget Brink, a career diplomat, to be U.S. ambassador to Ukraine at 2:30 p.m.

ALSO TODAY: President Joe Biden meets with Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi at the White House at 2 p.m. “The leaders will discuss their ongoing coordination with allies and partners on measures to support the people of Ukraine and to impose economic costs on Russia for its unprovoked aggression,” said the White House in a statement.

ESPER ON BIDEN ‘WEAKNESS’: In his interview last night on Fox News’s Special Report, former Defense Secretary Mark Esper was asked by Fox’s Bret Baier if former President Donald Trump has a point when he criticized the Biden administration at his Saturday night rally for displaying “incredible weakness” which invited Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

Esper is promoting his book, A Sacred Oath, which is being released today and is highly critical of Trump.

“I think that he might have sensed some weakness there, that there was a lack of resolve by President Biden to really stand firm with our allies in Afghanistan and alongside our NATO allies in NATO. So, there may have been something along those lines,” Esper said. “But you can’t point to one thing. I think there were probably a series of things happening, that Putin felt it was time to act.”

At his rally in Greensburg, Pennsylvania, Trump claimed that if he were still in office, Putin would never have dared to invade Ukraine.

“Putin saw this incredible weakness, and that’s when he decided to invade Ukraine. He didn’t look at Ukraine when I was there. He would never have done it. Would’ve never, ever happened, 100%,” Trump told the crowd. “They don’t know how to deal with Vladimir Putin. They don’t. They’re saying exactly the wrong thing at the wrong time. They know nothing about psychology and what it takes to end this madness that’s going on. Millions of people will end up being killed because we don’t know what the hell we are doing.”

ESPER: BIDEN PERFORMANCE ‘MIXED’: Esper told Fox that Biden stumbled out of the gate sending mixed messages about U.S. resolve, but has regained his footing somewhat since his early missteps.

“It was too slow early on and not sufficient. I don’t know why we ever took the military option off the table. I don’t know why the president said what he said about minor incursions. And I think we should have moved forward with providing the Ukrainians with the MiGs,” Esper said. “But, at this point in time, I mean, they’re in a better position. The West is in a better position vis-a-vis Putin.”

ESPER ON WHY HE DIDN’T QUIT: Esper’s getting a lot of questions on his promotional tour about why, if Trump was “an idiosyncratic, unpredictable, and unprincipled commander in chief,” as Esper describes him in the book, he didn’t resign in protest. The short answer is that Esper felt he needed to stay to push back on some of Trump’s crazier ideas.

He gives longer answer in the introduction to A Sacred Oath:

I asked myself why I didn’t resign. This was the existential question of the Trump administration: Why did good people stay even after the president suggested or pressed us to do things that were reckless, or foolish, or just plain wrong? Why did we remain even after he made outrageous or false statements, or denigrated our people, our departments, or us? I wrestled with these questions many times during my tenure, and especially in the months following the events of June 1. 

It demanded a lot of soul-searching, reaching back into my upbringing, my education at West Point, and my training in the Army, studying historical examples, speaking with my predecessors in both parties, thinking hard about my oath, and talking it through with my wife. On more than one occasion, Leah would say to me, “As your wife, please quit. As an American citizen, please stay.” 

Quitting in outrage would have made me feel good in the moment — it would have saved me a ton of stress and criticism. News outlets and social media would likely hail me as a “resistance” hero. However, I didn’t think it was the right thing to do for our country. And as I told a reporter once near the end of my tenure, “my soldiers don’t get to quit” when the going gets tough, so I won’t either. I agonized nonetheless. Many of us did.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Pentagon cites reports Russian military has ‘refused to obey orders’ in Donbas

Washington Examiner: Russia fires hypersonic missiles at ‘tourist infrastructure’ in Ukraine, officials say

Washington Examiner: Zelensky says ‘immediate measures’ needed to unblock Ukrainian ports

Washington Examiner: At least 100 civilians remain trapped in Mariupol steel plant: City official

Washington Examiner: Ukraine’s ability to hold off Russia brings US further into the fight

Washington Examiner: Analysis: In Victory Day speech, Putin seeks Russian unity for long-term struggle against West

Washington Examiner: Russia’s ‘doomsday plane’ a no-show at Victory Day parade

Washington Examiner: Hawley calls on Biden to keep Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods in place

Washington Examiner: Iran readies for grid blackout war with US

Washington Examiner: Sailor found dead on USS Bataan prompts Navy investigation

Reuters: Biden Says He Is Worried Putin Does Not Have A Way Out Of Ukraine War

AP: Crucial NATO decisions expected in Finland, Sweden this week

AP: S. Korea’s new leader offers support if North denuclearizes

AP: North Korea in ‘firm solidarity’ with Russia

Washington Times: Strategic Command Chief Details Chinese Space-Based Nuclear Missile

South China Morning Post: Chinese Smart Satellite Tracks U.S. Aircraft Carrier In Real Time, Researchers Say

Bloomberg: Pentagon Budget’s Inflation Boost Targets Salaries, New Ships

USNI News: Fewer Marines, More Sensors Part Of Berger’s Latest Force Design Revision

Military.com: Undeterred By Critics, The Marines’ Transformation Forges Ahead With An Eye On Ukraine

CNN: Biden Tells Top National Security Officials Leaks About Intelligence Sharing With Ukrainians Must Stop

Stars and Stripes: Pentagon Urges Congress To Pass Supplemental Ukraine Aid Bill Swiftly As Funding For Weapons Runs Low

Task & Purpose: Air Force investigating racist text to airman saying he needed ‘white complexion’ for assignment

Air Force Magazine: New Bill Aims to Highlight Pass-Through Funding’s Impact on the Air Force

Air Force Magazine: Q&A: Semper Supra, Gen. John W. “Jay” Raymond,

Air Force Magazine: Former USAF Astronaut—Now NASA’s No. 2—on Russia, the Future of the ISS, and the Military on the Moon

Task & Purpose: Commandant Walks Back Possibility Of Marines Skipping Boot Camp

19fortyfive.com: Kaliningrad: Russia’s Unsinkable ‘Aircraft Carrier’ Should Make NATO Sweat

19fortyfive.com: Putin’s Sanctions Hell: Russia’s Economy Could Be In Serious Trouble

19fortyfive.com: Putin’s Ukraine Nightmare: Has Russia’s Military Failed in the Donbas?

The Cipher Brief: Opinion: The Slippery Slope of Intelligence Sharing with Ukraine

The Cipher Brief: Opinion: Stay Calm and Consider 5 Steps on Solomon Islands

Calendar

TUESDAY | MAY 10

9 a.m. 901 17th St. N.W. — American Bar Association Standing Committee on Law and National Security breakfast program: “In Ukraine, There are No Quick Fixes,” with John Erath, former member of the National Security Council and current senior policy director for the nonprofit Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, Register with Jennifer Kildee [email protected]

9:30 a.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on “Worldwide Threats.,” with Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines; and Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency http://www.armed-services.senate.gov

10 a.m. — Senate Appropriations Defense Subcommittee hearing: “President’s Fiscal Year 2023 funding request and budget justification for the Army,” with Army Secretary Christine Wormuth and Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville https://www.appropriations.senate.gov/hearings

10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual Schriever Spacepower Forum on the current state of the U.S. Space Force, U.S. Space Command and “what will be needed to ensure the U.S. is able to achieve and sustain space superiority in an era of great power competition,” with Rep. Jim Cooper, D-Tenn. https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event

10 a.m. — Foreign Policy virtual discussion: “The American War in Afghanistan,” with Carter Malkasian, former special assistant for strategy to the Joint Chiefs of Staff; Janine di Giovanni, senior fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute for Global Affairs; and Janice Stein, professor of conflict management at the University of Toronto https://foreignpolicy.com/events/fp-virtual-dialogue

10:15 a.m. Walter E. Washington Convention Center — Modern Day Marine 2022 exposition with Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro, and Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger, and others https://marinemilitaryexpos.com/modern-day-marine

10:30 a.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion with British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace about how NATO allies can “outgun and outnumber” Putin.https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live

11 a.m. S-116 Capitol — Senate Foreign Relations Committee “Working Coffee” with His Majesty, King Abdullah II of Jordan

11 a.m. — Center for the National Interest Zoom webinar: “Does Nuclear War Loom With Russia?” with Dimitri Simes, CNI president and CEO, who recently returned from a two-week visit to Moscow https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register

2 p.m. — President Joe Biden welcomes Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi to the White House

2:30 p.m. SD-106 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on nominations of  Bridget Brink to be U.S. ambassador to Ukraine; Elizabeth Richard to be coordinator for counterterrorism, with the rank and status of ambassador-at-large; and Alexander Mark Laskaris to be U.S. ambassador to Chad. All three nominees are career foreign service officers. https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings/nominations

2:30 p.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Readiness and Management Support Subcommittee and Seapower Subcommittee hearing on the Shipyard Infrastructure Optimization Program, with testimony from Frederick Stefany, principal civilian deputy assistant Navy secretary for research, development, and acquisition; Vice Adm. William Galinis, commander of the Naval Sea Systems Command; Rear Adm. Troy McClelland, program executive officer for industrial infrastructure; and Diana Maurer, director of defense capabilities and management at the Government Accountability Office http://www.armed-services.senate.gov

2:30 p.m. 222 Russell — Senate Armed Services Airland Subcommittee hearing: “Army Modernization in review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2023 and the Future Years Defense Program,” with testimony from Douglas Bush, assistant Army secretary for acquisition, logistics and technology; Lt. Gen. James Richardson, deputy commanding general of the U.S. Army Futures Command; and Brig. Gen. Michael McCurry, director of force development, U.S. Army, testify http://www.armed-services.senate.gov

3 p.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — American Enterprise Institute in-person event: “The Future of U.S. National Security Policy,” with Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wisc; and Colin Dueck, nonresident senior fellow, AEI https://www.aei.org/events/a-conversation-with-rep-mike-gallagher

3 p.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center Kennan Institute virtual discussion: “ Lifting the Fog of War in Ukraine,” with Jamie Fly, president and CEO of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (REF/RL); Mark Green, WWC president, director and CEO; Abraham Denmark, vice president of programs/director of studies, senior adviser to the WWC Asia Program and senior fellow in the WWC Institute on China and the United States; Patrick Boehler, head of digital strategy for RFE/RL; and Natalie Sedletskam, host and executive producer of Schemes: Corruption in Details RFE/RL Ukrainian Service https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/lifting-fog-war-ukraine

WEDNESDAY | MAY 11

9 a.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. N.W. — U.S. Institute of Peace discussion: “Previewing the U.S.-ASEAN Summit What to Expect from the Special Meeting of ASEAN and U.S. Leaders,” with Kurt Campbell, coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs at the National Security Council; Lise Grande, USIP President and CEO; and Evan Medeiros, USIP special adviser https://www.usip.org/events/previewing-us-asean-summit

10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee Hearing: “Fiscal Year 2023 Defense Budget Request from the Department of the Navy,” with testimony from Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday, and Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

10 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual event: “NATO and Russia’s War on Ukraine: A Conversation with NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoana; and Kenneth Weinstein, distinguished fellow, Hudson Institute https://www.hudson.org/events

2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces Hearing: “Fiscal Year 2023 Strategic Forces Missile Defense and Missile Defeat Programs,” with testimony from John Plumb, assistant secretary of defense for space policy; Vice Adm. Jon Hill, director, Missile Defense Agency; Lt. Gen. John Shaw, deputy commander, U.S. Space Command; Lt. Gen. Daniel Karbler, commander, U.S. army space and missile defense command; and John Sawyer, acting director, contracting and national security acquisitions https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

2:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing: “Review of the FY 2023 USAID Budget Request,” with testimony from Samantha Power, administrator, U.S. Agency for International Development https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings

3 p.m. — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcome British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace to the Pentagon, with remarks before their private meeting

3 p.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual discussion: “Space National Guard,” with Brig. Gen. Michael Valle, assistant adjutant general at the Florida Air National Guard; and Brig. Gen. Steven Butow, primary adviser to the adjutant general at the California Air National Guard https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event

4:30 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness Hearing: “Fiscal Year 2023 Budget Request for Military Readiness,”with testimony from Gen. Joseph Martin, Army vice chief of staff; Adm. William Lescher, vice chief of naval operations; Gen. Eric Smith, assistant commandant of the Marine Corps; Gen. David Allvin, Air Force vice chief of staff; and Gen. David Thompson, vice chief of space operations https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

THURSDAY | MAY 12

TBA — President Joe Biden welcomes leaders of ASEAN countries and the ASEAN Secretary General to the White House for a dinner as part of the U.S.-ASEAN Special Summit, commemorating 45 years of U.S.-ASEAN relations

9:30 a.m. 419 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing: “U.S. Efforts to Support Ukraine Against Russian Aggression, with testimony from Jessica Lewis, Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs; Erin McKee, assistant administrator for Europe and Eurasia, U.S. Agency for International Development; Karen Donfried, assistant secretary of state for european and eurasian affairs; and Beth Van Schaack, ambassador-at-large for global criminal justice https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings

10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “Department of the Army Fiscal Year 2023 Budget Request,” with testimony from Army Secretary Christine Wormuth, and Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces hearing: “Air Force Projection Forces Aviation Programs and Capabilities related to the FY2023 President’s Budget Request,” with testimony from Andrew Hunter, assistant secretary of the Air Force for acquisition, technology and logistics; and Lt. Gen. David Nahom, deputy Air Force chief of staff for plans and programs https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

4:30 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Cyber, Innovative Technologies, and Information Systems hearing: “Reviewing Department of Defense Science and Technology Strategy, Policy, and Programs for Fiscal Year 2023: Accelerating the Pace of Innovation,” with testimony from Heidi Shyu, undersecretary of defense for research and engineering; William Nelson, deputy assistant secretary of the Army for Research and Technology; Kristen Baldwin, deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force for science, technology, and engineering; Paul Mann, acting deputy assistant secretary of the Navy for research, development, test, and evaluation https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

FRIDAY | MAY 13

TBA — President Joe Biden participates in the U.S.-ASEAN Special Summit at the State Department

10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Land Forces hearing: “Fiscal Year 2023 Marine Corps Modernization Programs,’ with testimony from Frederick “Jay” Stefany, principal civilian deputy, assistant secretary of the Navy for research, development, and acquisition; Lt. Gen. Mark Wise, Deputy Marine Corps Commandant for Aviation; Lt. Gen. Karsten Heckl, commanding general, Marine Corps Combat Development Command and deputy commandant for combat development and integration https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

10 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual event: “Dialogues on American Foreign Policy and World Affairs” with Robert Kagan, senior fellow, Project on International Order and Strategy, Foreign Policy, Brookings Institution, contributing columnist at the Washington Post; and Walter Russell Mead, distinguished fellow, Hudson Institute https://www.eventbrite.com/e/virtual-event

SATURDAY | MAY 14

German Federal Foreign Office — Informal meeting of NATO Ministers of Foreign Affairs, May 14-15, 2022 in Berlin, Germany. https://www.nato.int/