‘THIS IS GOING TO HAPPEN’: Rafael Grossi, the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, conceded yesterday that Iran is on track to have enough enriched uranium to build a nuclear weapon.
“Having a significant quantity does not mean having a bomb,” Grossi told reporters. “This idea of crossing the line, it’s going to happen. They are very close … it cannot be avoided.”
“And so, it’s a matter of time, where they get to one or more so-called ‘significant quantities’… which is the quantity,” he said, “for which the development of a nuclear weapon cannot be excluded.”
The IAEA’s Board of Governors is meeting this week in Vienna, and it is considering a resolution drafted by the United States, United Kingdom, France, and Germany that would censure Iran for not fully cooperating with the U.N. watchdog agency.
In remarks at Monday’s Board of Governors meeting, Grossi said Iran has “not provided explanations that are technically credible in relation to the agency’s findings at three undeclared locations in Iran.”
UN WATCHDOG: IRAN MAY HAVE ENOUGH NUCLEAR MATERIAL FOR MULTIPLE BOMBS
IRAN’S BREAKOUT TIME ‘NOW AT ZERO’: An analysis of the IAEA’s latest verification and monitoring report by David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, and Andrea Stricker of the Institute for Science and International Security concludes Iran is already there when it comes to having enough raw material to make a nuclear bomb.
“Due to the growth of Iran’s 60% enriched uranium stocks, Iran has crossed a dangerous new threshold: its breakout timeline is now at zero,” the scientists say. “It has enough 60% enriched uranium, or highly enriched uranium (HEU) in the form of uranium hexafluoride to be assured it could fashion directly a nuclear explosive.”
The analysis says Iran is capable of further enriching its highly enriched uranium, to 90% or weapons grade, which could be used in “known nuclear weapons designs” using “only a few of its” advanced centrifuges. “Whether or not Iran enriches its HEU up to 90 percent, it can have enough HEU for two nuclear weapons within one month after starting breakout.”
“In essence, Iran has effectively broken out slowly by accumulating 60 percent enriched uranium,” the scientists write. “Iran is learning important lessons in breaking out to nuclear weapons, including by experimenting with skipping typical enrichment steps.”
“Combined with Iran’s refusal to resolve outstanding safeguards violations, the IAEA has a significantly reduced ability to monitor Iran’s complex and growing nuclear program, which notably has unresolved nuclear weapons dimensions,” the analysis concludes.
‘A VERY BIG QUESTION MARK’: At that State Department yesterday, spokesman Ned Price conceded that negotiations to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, are fading.
“It remains a very big question mark as to whether we will get there,” Price told reporters. “Regardless of whether there is a JCPOA or not, President Biden has committed that Iran will never be in a position to obtain a nuclear weapon.”
Price says if efforts to bring Iran back into compliance with the nuclear agreement fail, the Biden administration will pursue other options. “We are engaging with allies and partners around the world in the absence of a JCPOA to ensure that even in the case that we are unable to get there that Iran will not be able to acquire a nuclear weapon.”
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HAPPENING TODAY: At 2:45 p.m. in the East Room, President Joe Biden signs into law nine bipartisan bills intended to improve care for America’s veterans.
“These bills will expand access to high-quality breast cancer screening, improve breast imaging services, and ensure that Americans who developed cancer and other medical conditions due to the nation’s World War II-era nuclear program can continue to be compensated for the harms they have suffered,” said the White House.
Veterans Affairs Secretary Denis McDonough is also scheduled to attend.
ALSO TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin departs for Singapore and Bangkok, Thailand. Austin will take part in the International Institute for Strategic Studies 19th “Shangri-La Dialogue.”
“Secretary Austin’s trip falls on the heels of the U.S.-ASEAN Special Summit earlier this month and President Biden’s visit to the Republic of Korea and Japan,” said the Pentagon in a statement. “It is an affirmation of the United States’ deep commitment to working in concert with allies and partners to chart our shared vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific, anchored in ASEAN centrality.”
THE BATTLE FOR SEVERODONETSK: The latest reports from the key Ukrainian town of Severodonetsk suggest a fluid battle in which territory changes hands daily. The governor of the Luhansk region, Serhiy Haidai, described the situation as “worsened,” in a television interview, and the Institute for the Study of War said Russian forces likely retain control over much of the city.
In his latest video address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said, “Our heroes hold their positions in Severodonetsk. Fierce street fights continue in the city,” and the latest British Intelligence update said the Ukrainian military recaptured parts of the city over the weekend, but that Russian forces continue to occupy eastern districts.
In an interview with ABC, Zelensky’s wife, first lady Olena Zelenska, appealed to the world not to lose interest in the war.
“I really want the whole world, and Americans as well, not to get used to this war,” she said. “Yes, it is far from you, it lasts long, and you can get tired of it, but please do not get used to it, because if everyone gets used to it, this war will never end.”
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: UN watchdog: Iran may have enough nuclear material for multiple bombs
Washington Examiner: Top EU diplomat blasts Putin for airstrike on massive grain terminal in Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Thirty-two journalists have been killed in Ukraine since Russia invaded, Kyiv says
Washington Examiner: Russia restarts attacks against Kyiv as fighting in east continues
Washington Examiner: Putin threatens to hit new targets in Ukraine if US provides long-range missiles
Washington Examiner: British man sentenced to 15 years in Iraqi prison for artifact smuggling attempt
Washington Examiner: Proud Boys charged with ‘seditious conspiracy’ related to Capitol riot
Washington Examiner: Migrant caravan traveling through Mexico to US could soon be largest ever
Washington Examiner: Biden to use Defense Production Act to build more solar panel parts at home
Washington Examiner: Insider attack suspected in US base bombing in Syria
Washington Examiner: China chaffs itself in the face
Washington Examiner: F-16 belonging to Taiwan crash lands in Hawaii: Reports
New York Times: Potent Weapons Reach Ukraine Faster Than the Know-How to Use Them
AP: Russia begins returning bodies from steel mill
Washington Post: China secretly building PLA naval facility in Cambodia, Western officials say
CNN: Why The Sparsely-Populated South Pacific Islands Have Become The Next US-China Contest
AP: US, S. Korea fly 20 fighter jets amid N. Korea tensions
Defense News: Turkey Seeks to Repair Ties with Western Procurement Club
USNI News: New Marine Littoral Regiment Will Make Debut In This Year’s RIMPAC Drills
Air Force Magazine: C-17 Guard Crew Honored for Valor During Kabul Airlift
Air Force Magazine: Chinese UAV Industry Creates New Challenge for the US Air Force
Air Force Magazine: Tracking Hypersonics in Real Time
AP: Joy, sadness intertwine at Normandy’s D-Day commemorations
AP: See Satellite Images Of China’s New Aircraft Carrier
The Guardian: ‘A Dangerous Act’: How a Chinese Fighter Jet Intercepted an RAAF Aircraft and What Happens Next
Bloomberg: China Warns Australia of Serious Consequences Over Jet Encounter
19fortyfive.com: 30,000 Dead: Why Putin’s War Against Ukraine Looks Like a Disaster
19fortyfive.com: The F-22 Raptor Is Testing NGAD 6th Generation Fighter Tech
19fortyfive.com: M1A2 SEPv3 Abrams: Why There May Be No Better Tank Anywhere
Calendar
TUESDAY | JUNE 7
9 a.m. — Defense Department virtual 2022 DoD Digital and AI Symposium, with Marine Corps Lt. Gen. Michael Groen, director of the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center; Margaret Palmieri, principal deputy chief digital and AI officer at the Defense Department; Craig Martell, chief digital and AI officer at the Defense Department; and Eric Schmidt, commissioner of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence https://www.ai.mil/digai2022.html
9 a.m. 529 14th St. N.W. — USAID Administrator Samantha Power delivers a policy address on the future of democracy and development around the world at the National Press Club
9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Implementing the EU’s Strategic Compass: The View from Washington and London,” with Alison Weston, deputy director of the European External Action Service’s Security Defense Policy Directorate; Angus Lapsley, director of Euro-Atlantic security at the UK Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office; and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Molly Montgomery https://www.csis.org/events/implementing-eus-strategic-compass
9 a.m. — House Armed Services Committee’s Intelligence and Special Operations Subcommittee media briefing on markups for the FY2023 NDAA https://docs.google.com/forms
9 a.m. Senate Swamp, U.S. Capitol — Senate Veterans’ Affairs Chairman Jon Tester, D-Mont., holds a news conference on H.R.3967, the “Honoring Our Promise to Address Comprehensive Toxics (PACT) Act of 2022.”
9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The U.S. Philippines Alliance Under Marcos,” with Charmaine Misalucha-Willoughby, associate professor at De La Salle University; and Aries Arugay, visiting fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies Yusof Ishak Institute https://www.csis.org/events/us-philippines-alliance-under-marcos
9:30 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual discussion: “Orbital Vigilance: The Need for Enhanced Space-Based Missile Warning and Tracking,” with Space Force Col. Miguel Cruz, commander of the Delta 4, Missile Warning command; Davin Swanson, chief engineer in space and C2 systems at Raytheon Intelligence and Space; Christopher Stone, senior fellow at the Mitchell Institute’s Space Studies; and retired Air Force Gen. Kevin Chilton, chair of the Mitchell Institute’s Aerospace Studies https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/orbital-vigilance
9:30 a.m. — Department of Defense LGBTQ+ Pride ceremony with Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks; Shawn Skelly, assistant secretary of defense for readiness; Undersecretary of the Air Force Gina Ortiz Jones; and Space Force Lt. Col. Bree Fram https://www.defense.gov/News/Live-Events/
10 a.m. 192 Dirksen — Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense hearing: “The President’s Fiscal Year 2023 funding request and budget justification for the National Guard and Reserve,” with testimony from Gen. Daniel Hokanson, chief, National Guard Bureau; Lt. Gen. Jody Daniels, chief, Army Reserve; Vice Adm. John Mustin, chief, Navy Reserve; Lt. Gen. David Bellon, commander, Marine Corps Forces Reserve; and Lt. Gen. Richard Scobee, chief, Air Force Reserve https://www.appropriations.senate.gov/hearings
10 a.m. 216 Hart — Senate Judiciary Committee hearing: “Examining the ‘Metastasizing’ Domestic Terrorism Threat After the Buffalo Attack,” with testimony from Robert Pape, professor of political science and director of the University of Chicago’s Chicago Project on Security and Threats, Chicago, Ill.; Michael German, fellow at the Brennan Center for Justice’s Liberty and National Security Program and former special agent at the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Washington, D.C.; Garnell Whitfield Buffalo, N.Y.; Justin E. Herdman, former U.S. attorney for the northern district of Ohio, Cleveland, Ohio; and Jonathan Turley, professor of public interest law at the George Washington University Law School https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/meetings/examining-the-metastasizing-domestic-terrorism-threat
10 a.m. — House Armed Services Committee’s Cyber, Innovative Technologies, and Information Systems Subcommittee media briefing on markups for the FY2023 NDAA https://docs.google.com/forms
11 a.m. — House Armed Services Committee’s Readiness Subcommittee media briefing on markups for the FY2023 NDAA https://docs.google.com/forms
12 p.m. — House Armed Services Committee’s Strategic Forces Subcommittee media briefing, beginning on markups for the FY2023 NDAA https://docs.google.com/forms
12 p.m. Rome, Italy — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “A New Transatlantic Relationship for the Middle East and North Africa,” with former Italian Ambassador to the U.S. Ferdinando Salleo; Thomas Smitham, charge d’affaires at the U.S. Embassy in Rome; Valeria Talbot, co-head of the Institute for International Political Studies’ Middle East and North Africa Center; former Tunisian Minister of Foreign Affairs Khemaies Jhinaoui, founder of the Tunisian Council for International Relations; and Dina Fakoussa-Behrens, associate fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
1 p.m. — House Armed Services Committee’s Military Personnel Subcommittee media briefing, on markups for the FY2023 NDAA https://docs.google.com/forms
1 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion: “Accelerating Special Operations Modernization,” with Ryan McLean, director of the U.S. Special Operations Command Tactical Assault Kit’s Product Center; Daniel Lynch, chief software integration officer at U.S. Special Operations Command; Vimesh Patel, chief technology adviser at World Wide Technology; and George Jackson, director of events at Government Executive https://events.govexec.com/accelerating-special-operations-modernization/
2:30 p.m. — Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe virtual hearing: “European Energy Security Post-Russia,” with Yuriy Vitrenko, CEO at Naftogaz Ukraine; Constanze Stelzenmuller, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution; and Benjamin Schmitt, research associate at Harvard University https://www.youtube.com/user/HelsinkiCommission
WEDNESDAY | JUNE 8
9 a.m. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association and George Mason University virtual 2022 AFCEA-GMU Critical Issues in C4I Symposium, with Brig. Gen. John Olson, chief data and artificial intelligence officer at the Air Force Department; Andrew Malloy, technical director of the Defense Information Systems Agency; and Gregg Judge, CIO and deputy director of the Army’s Enterprise Cloud Management Office https://www.afcea.org/event/GMU-Home
10 a.m. 419 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing: “The Path Forward on U.S.-Syria Policy: Strategy and Accountability,” with testimony from Barbara Leaf, assistant secretary of state for near eastern affairs; Dana Stroul, deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East; Milena Sterio, professor of law and LLM programs director, Cleveland-Marshall College of Law. https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings
10 a.m. — House Armed Services Subcommittee markups of H.R.7900, the FY2023 NDAA
- 10 a.m. — Cyber, Innovative Technologies, and Information Systems Subcommittee
- 12 p.m. — Strategic Forces Subcommittee
- 2 p.m. — Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee
- 3:30 p.m. — Military Personnel Subcommittee
http://www.armedservices.house.gov
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies-Chey Conference: “Cooperation on Scientific Innovation, Supply Chains, and Geopolitical Risk in Northeast Asia,” with David Honey, Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Research & Engineering
https://www.csis.org/events/csis-chey-conference
10 a.m. 2172 Rayburn — House Foreign Affairs Asia, the Pacific, Central Asia and Nonproliferation Subcommittee hearing: “Resourcing U.S. Priorities in the Indo-Pacific FY2023 Budget.” http://foreignaffairs.house.gov
10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual discussion on nuclear deterrence,” with Air Force Lt. Gen. Thomas Bussiere, deputy commander of the U.S. Strategic Command https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/nuclear-deterrence
11 a.m. — Brookings Institution virtual forum: “Russia, France, and global disorder,” with French Ambassador to the U.S. Phillippe Etienne; Fiona Hill, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Center on the U.S. and Europe and former deputy assistant to the president and former senior director for European and Russian affairs at the National Security Council; Thomas Gomart, director of the French Institute of International Relations; and Celia Belin, interim director of the Brookings Institution’s Center on the U.S. and Europe https://www.brookings.edu/events/russia-france-and-global-disorder/
12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army “Noon Report” webinar: “Washington’s War: Lessons in Leadership for a Modern Army,” with retired Lt. Gen. James Dubik, AUSA senior fellow https://info.ausa.org/e/784783/G-James-Dubik
12:30 p.m. 1030 15th Street N.W. — Atlantic Council forum on “Strengthening Black Sea Security and Defense in a New Era,” with Romanian Ambassador to the U.S. Andrei Muraru https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/strenghtening-black-sea-security
3:30 p.m. — Heritage Foundation event: “Maintaining American Nuclear Deterrence,” with Rep. Doug Lamborn, R-Colo., ranking member, House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces; and Patty-Jane Geller, Heritage senior policy analyst for nuclear deterrence and missile defense https://www.heritage.org/missile-defense/event
3:45 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual book discussion of Getting China Wrong,” with author Aaron Friedberg, professor of politics and international affairs at Princeton University https://www.csis.org/events/book-event-getting-china-wrong
7:30 p.m. 7920 Jones Branch Dr., McLean, Va. — Intelligence and National Security Alliance discussion on the Defense Department’s strategic outlook for digital modernization and cybersecurity with Pentagon CIO John Sherman; and retired Army Lt. Gen. Robert Ashley, former director of the Defense Intelligence Agency https://www.insaonline.org/event/leadership-dinner-with-the-hon-john-sherman/
THURSDAY | JUNE 9
8 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee markups of H.R.7900, the FY2023 NDAA
- 8 a.m. — Readiness Subcommittee
- 9 a.m. — Tactical Air and Land Forces Subcommittee
- 10 a.m. — Intelligence and Special Operations Subcommittee
http://www.armedservices.house.gov
10 a.m. 419 Dirksen — House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe and Regional Security Cooperation hearing: “European Energy Security: America’s Role in Supporting Europe’s Energy Diversification Agenda,” with testimony from Amos Hochstein, U.S. senior adviser for energy security, U.S. Department of State https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings
7 p.m. — Henry Stimson Center virtual discussion: “Arms Racing in Northeast Asia and Implications for the Korean Peninsula” https://www.stimson.org/event/arms-racing-in-northeast-asia
FRIDAY | JUNE 10
11 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Are Sanctions on Russia Working?” with Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Molly Montgomery; and Svitlana Zalischuk, adviser to the Naftogaz CEO
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/are-sanctions-on-russia-working/
WEDNESDAY | JUNE 22
10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee full committee markup of H.R.7900, the FY2023 NDAA http://www.armedservices.house.gov
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“We are again seeing death and destruction on the European continent While Kyiv may be 2,000 kilometers from here, they too, right now today are experiencing the same horrors that the French citizens experienced in World War II at the hands of the Nazi invaders.”
Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley, speaking at ceremonies 78th anniversary of the D-Day landing at Normandy American Cemetery and Memorial.
