North Korea’s dangerous game

North Korea’s unbridled pursuit of missile technology that can threaten the United States has put a renewed focus on the state of U.S. missile defenses, long derided by critics as a “pie in the sky” program that has failed to produce a real missile shield the U.S. can rely on in a crisis. In this week’s magazine we look those criticisms and examine the question, “Can the U.S. shoot down North Korean missiles?” The Pentagon has repeatedly said the U.S. has the capability, and the numbers suggest the claim may be valid, especially for the THAAD system [Terminal High Altitude Area Defense]. The deployment of Lockheed Martin’s THAAD to South Korea, first proposed last summer, has been in slow motion as Seoul has been wary of provoking China, but the latest North Korean missile tests have added new urgency to the need for missile defenses. Acting South Korean President Hwang Kyo-ahn called for the early deployment THAAD during a meeting of his National Security Council today.

Meanwhile, the New York Times explores the question of how much U.S. cyber warfare may be sabotaging the North Korean missile program, in much the same way the U.S. and Israel used the “stuxnet” virus to cripple Iran’s nuclear program. David Sanger, the New York Times reporter who broke the Stuxnet the story along with William Broad said the two of them noticed the North Koreans were suffering a much higher failure rate (88 percent) with a missile based on a Russian design that worked pretty well when the Russians were firing them, (13 percent failure rate). “These things are just falling into the ocean too fast,” Sanger said on CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday. “Now, a lot of things could explain that. The North Koreans are not the best manufacturers in the world, you know. They are not the best welders in the world. But clearly something else was making this worse. And that was it.” Sanger said his newspaper decided to go public with the covert program because North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has already ordered an investigation into the suspected sabotage, and has executed some of his senior national security officials. “So we went ahead and wrote a story carefully in a way that we thought would not provide the technical details that would allow the North Koreans to defeat what the United States is doing,” Sanger told CBS.

SYRIA PLANS COALESCING: More reporting out this weekend confirms the U.S. plan for accelerating the campaign to defeat ISIS involves supercharging the Obama administration’s policy, rather than trying something radically different. This is particularly true for the U.S. military strategy to drive ISIS out of its self-proclaimed capital in Raqqa, Syria. As we reported last week, U.S. commanders have indicated that they hope to give Syrian Kurdish and Arab force more combat firepower to enable them to to liberate the city from Islamic State rule. The Washington Post Sunday summed it up this way: “Rather than a wholesale revision, the new proposal calls for increased U.S. participation, with more personnel and equipment and less-restrictive rules. As they have in support of the Iraqi military in Mosul, U.S. fixed-wing aircraft and attack helicopters would actively back the ground force. U.S.-owned and operated artillery would be moved into Syria to pound the militants from afar, while more special operations troops would move closer to the front lines — requiring more U.S. military assets to protect them.”  

But the situation in Syria remains enormously complicated, with a civil war going on side-by-side with the counter-ISIS mission, and conflicting loyalties on the ground in which the U.S. is trying to keep its NATO ally Turkey from fighting with its other ally the Syrian Kurds.

Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Jacqueline Klimas (@jacqklimas) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll be sure to add you to our list.

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HAPPENING TODAY: Trump is expected to issue a new executive order as soon as today limiting travel to the United States by foreign nationals from selected countries and pausing the refugee program. Members of Congress have been told Iraq will not be included in this new version, in deference to the fact that Iraqi troops are fighting and dying battling the Islamic State in Mosul, with U.S. backing. The countries will now include Iran, Somalia, Sudan, Yemen, Syria and Libya.  

THIS YEAR’S BUDGET: The House votes this week on the defense appropriations bill for fiscal 2017 (yes, the fiscal year that’s already half over) as it attempts to give the Pentagon an actual budget for this year, instead of a continuing resolution. The bill “closely reflects” the one that easily passed the House in August by a 282-138 vote, but failed to advance in the Senate. The vote is expected Wednesday. Congress could also take up the administration’s fiscal 2017 supplemental funding bill for defense soon, though it’s not on the House’s schedule this week. The request is for roughly $30 billion to deal with immediate readiness problems, such as restocking bombs and munitions, spare parts for aircraft, and training hours for pilots and other critical warfighters

NEXT YEAR’S BUDGET: Meanwhile lawmakers are already anxious about the funding levels Trump will propose for the next fiscal year beginning Oct. 1., which is due on Capitol Hill soon. Rep. Duncan Hunter and Rep. John Garamendi are circulating a letter among their House colleagues asking appropriators to reject the president’s plan to cut $1.3 billion from the Coast Guard, a move they say is directly at odds with Trump’s promise to build up the military. That cut includes the cancellation of a “roughly $500 million new ship,” which is likely the ninth national security cutter built by Huntington Ingalls Industries, Hunter wrote.

And other analysts are continuing to call out Trump for saying that his proposed defense boost in fiscal 2018 is among the largest in history. Byron Callan, an analyst with Capital Alpha Partners, called the increase “pedestrian,” noting that the $603 billion topline is only about 3 percent more than Obama laid out in his future year defense plan for fiscal 2018. “Forget the adjectives and focus on the numbers,” Callan wrote in an email.

In an interview on Fox News, House Armed Services Committee Chairman Rep. Mac Thornberry said he opposes Trump’s plan to cut the State Department budget to pay for his military buildup. “I agree cuts to the State Department increase our security problems, not lessen them. One of the reasons we have had to count on the military to do so many things over the past few years is because the State Department and other agencies are not capable of doing them.” Thornberry wants $40 billion more added to the topline. “Here is the deal. We cannot wait to have safe airplanes for our pilots to fly in until we get our budget house in order. That’s not fair to them and it’s not fulfilling that first responsibility of the federal government.”

NUDE PIC SCANDAL ROCKS THE CORPS: The Department of Defense is investigating hundreds of Marines who shared nude photos of female service members and veterans. Dozens of women were identified by their rank, full name and military duty station in photos shared on a private Facebook page, “Marines United,” according to the Center for Investigative Reporting, which said some images showed women engaged in sexual acts.

The revelations provoked reaction from Thornberry. “Revelations of this sort of treatment against fellow Marines are troubling. Degrading behavior of this kind is entirely unacceptable.  They and the nation deserve better,” Thornberry said is a statement issued last night. “I expect the Marine Corps to investigate this matter fully with appropriate consequences for those who willingly participated.”

THE WIRETAP ALLEGATION: Trump again drove the news cycle over the weekend with his explosive Saturday morning accusation, without citing evidence, that Obama ordered the wiretapping of his phones at Trump Tower last October. The allegation was denied by a spokesman for the former president, and was disputed by Obama’s director of national intelligence. Speaking on NBC, James Clapper said he would know if the secret court that approves monitoring of U.S, citizens had approved any such request. “I will say that for the part of the national security apparatus that I oversaw as DNI, there was no such wiretap activity mounted against the president-elect at the time or as a candidate or against his campaign.”

The White House called for the matter to be included in the congressional investigation of Russian activities during the presidential campaign, and spokesman Sean Spicer tweeted that  the president would offer no evidence or further explanation pending the outcome of that investigation. “Neither the White House nor the President will comment further until such oversight is conducted,” (although Spicer did just that less than an hour later).

Republicans have already said they would look into the allegation, even as they professed not to know what the president was referring to. “We’ve already begun an inquiry on the Intelligence Committee into Russia’s efforts to undermine confidence in our political system last year and in our interest all around the world,” said GOP Sen. Tom Cotton on Fox News Sunday. “That inquiry is going to be thorough, and we’re going to follow the facts wherever they lead us, and I’m sure that this matter will be a part of that inquiry.” On NBC, Sen. Marco Rubio said, “I have no insight into what exactly he’s referring to. And I would imagine the president and the White House, in the days to come, will outline further what was behind that accusation.”

TRUMP LIVID: Trump was said to be fuming about the whole affair, and the FBI reportedly wanted the Justice Department to knock down the president’s allegation.

IT DEPENDS ON THE DEFINITION OF “VITAL” The debate continues over whether the intelligence gathered in the Jan. 29 SEAL Team 6 raid in Yemen captured intelligence that was worth risking the life of a U.S. special operations commando. “Vital is a subjective term,” a defense official told reporters at the Pentagon in a background briefing Friday. Intelligence officers will always take more information, he said “and this is good information, so we are happy to have it. We found a lot of telephone numbers, a lot of contact information, so that helps us understand who’s in the network and who’s tied to who, and who is connected to who which then allows us to draw that mosaic of who the group is, and how it’s situated,” he said.

TAKING THE GLOVES OFF: The raid was the beginning of an expanded effort to target Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, the terrorist group that seems most intent on attacking the West. “It’s definitely helping us understand the network, and further develop it out,” the official said. “There were large volumes of information” that show “who some of the individuals are.” The Pentagon says more than 30 U.S. airstrikes in Yemen over two days last week came after Trump gave new authorities to U.S. Central Commander to order military action without prior approval from the White House.

SAVE THE GOATS AND PIGS: A bipartisan group of lawmakers introduced a bill last week that would make the Pentagon stop killing about 8,500 goats and pigs each year in combat trauma medical training. But the Pentagon isn’t on board yet. “We would ask Congress to work with us until there are validated alternatives, and that experience and confidence gained by current training methods in teaching life-saving procedures improve before they consider passing that legislation,” a spokesman said.

VIDEO: The U.S. military has released video of the two Russian Su-24 jets that buzzed the destroyer USS Porter in the Black Sea on Feb. 10. Check it out here.

THE RUNDOWN

Defense News: Air Force leaders confirm light attack aircraft demo to take off this summer

Defense & Aerospace Report: USAF Chief Goldfein on Uncertain Budget, a Bigger Force & Pilot Retention

Washington Post: Mattis asks former U.S. ambassador Anne Patterson to take a top job at the Pentagon

Defense One: Chinese Military Officers Crash US Air Force Conference in Florida

Washington Post: China finance ministry releases $151 billion defense budget

Military Times: Chinese troops appear to be operating in Afghanistan, and the Pentagon is OK with it

UPI: Russia to begin aircraft carrier upgrade this year

Wall Street Journal: Iraqis Tell of Islamic State Brutality in Mosul

Air Force Times: The drawdown blew a hole in the Air Force’s maintenance ranks. How it’s digging its way out.

Calendar

WEDNESDAY | MARCH 8

10 a.m. Rayburn 2118. The vice chiefs of the military services testify about nuclear deterrence requirements. armedservices.house.gov

2 p.m. Rayburn 2212. The House Armed Services Readiness Subcommittee hosts a panel of Army officials to testify on the service’s readiness. armedservices.house.gov

2:30 p.m. Senate Visitor’s Center 217. Members of the Defense Science Board testify about cybersecurity in a closed hearing. armed-services.senate.gov

2:30 p.m. Russell 222. Retired Gen. C. Robert Kehler, the former leader of U.S. Strategic Command, testifies about the global nuclear weapons environment. armed-services.senate.gov

3:30 p.m. Rayburn 2118. Navy and think tank officials testify on the service’s fleet assessment. armedservices.house.gov

THURSDAY | MARCH 9

9:30 a.m. Hart 216. Gens. Joseph Votel and Thomas Waldhauser, the leaders of U.S. Central Command and Africa Command, respectively, testify before the Senate Armed Services Committee. armed-services.senate.gov

9:30 a.m. Capitol H-140. The House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee holds its members’ day. appropriations.house.gov

2:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The Center for Strategic and International Studies hosts a launch event for the new book, NATO and the North Atlantic: Revitalizing Collective Defense. csis.org

3:30 p.m. Rayburn 2118. Three members of the Defense Science Board testify on nuclear deterrence. armedservices.house.gov

FRIDAY | MARCH 10

9 a.m. Rayburn 2118. The House Armed Services Committee hosts a hearing about sequestration’s impact on Marine Corps readiness. armedservices.house.gov