“What you’re seeing is the effect of the Alamo. Mariupol has become like the Alamo. It’s a surrounded fortress just being bombed,” said retired Adm. James Stavridis, a former supreme allied commander. “It’s deadly,” Stavrisdis said on CNN. “And frankly, this is reminiscent of 15th-century warfare. It is simply surrounding a city and pounding it into submission.”

“This was the game plan often in Syria. Look at the ruins of the city of Aleppo,” he said. “I think Vladimir Putin, seeing his blitzkrieg failed, plan A, has gone to plan B, terrorize the populations and pummel these cities into submission.”

PENTAGON: ‘CLEAR EVIDENCE THAT RUSSIAN FORCES ARE COMMITTING WAR CRIMES’

RUSSIANS ‘NEAR DESPERATE’ TO GAIN MOMENTUM: After 26 days of war, the Pentagon sees a Russian offensive stalled on almost all fronts and increasingly beset by logistics, command and control, and morale problems.

“What we’re seeing is a near desperate attempt by the Russians to gain some momentum and try to turn the course of this in their favor,” a senior defense official told reporters at a briefing yesterday.

“One of the brilliant things that Ukrainians have done is to be thoughtful about where they’re defending and with what and when to be there. And that is what has stymied the Russian advance,” said Pentagon spokesman John Kirby at an afternoon briefing. “They’re still well outside Kyiv. They haven’t taken Kharkiv. They haven’t taken Chernihiv. They haven’t taken Mariupol. And we’re seeing them react to this frustration by evermore bombardment.”

“We still assess that the airspace over Ukraine is contested, that the Russians have not achieved air superiority,” said Kirby, despite the fact that Russia has the ability to shoot down Ukrainian planes with anti-aircraft systems that are safely across the border on Russian soil.

“The Ukrainians have been extraordinarily effective at preventing the Russians from achieving air superiority by the agility and the nimble way in which they are marshaling their own air defense resources,” Kirby said. “And that’s why … we’re continuing to not only provide short-range air defense systems to them ourselves, but to work with allies and partners to provide longer range air defense systems.”

PENTAGON OBSERVES ‘INCREASED’ RUSSIAN NAVAL ACTIVITY IN BLACK SEA

MOUNTING CASUALTIES: Ukraine has said for weeks its forces have been inflicting heavy casualties on the Russian invaders, claiming upwards of 14,000 enemy troops killed in combat, including five commanders.

The Pentagon has not confirmed those numbers, but a pro-Kremlin tabloid, Komsomolskaya Pravda, briefly reported what it said were official numbers leaked from the Russian Defense Ministry before taking down the information and claiming its website had been hacked.

Before a portion of the post disappeared, it said 9,861 Russian soldiers had died in Ukraine as of March 18, with 16,153 wounded.

Yesterday, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry reported it had killed about 300 more Russian troops in the previous day’s fighting, along with destroying 14 tanks, eight infantry fighting vehicles, three artillery systems, and hitting two “enemy air targets,” including a Russian plane shot down in the Kharkiv region near Chuhuiv.

Ukraine does not reveal its own combat losses, but President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a message that he signed a decree “awarding orders and medals to 105 of our warriors.”

“Seven of them are, unfortunately, awarded posthumously,” he said. “It was a day of difficult events, difficult conclusions, but it was another day that brought us all closer to our victory.”

OLIGARCH-OWNED TABLOID DELETES ARTICLE REPORTING 10K RUSSIAN SOLDIERS DEAD IN UKRAINE

Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

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PROGRAM NOTE: I will be making an appearance this morning on C-SPAN’s Washington Journal to discuss the latest on the situation in Ukraine. Tune in at 8:30 a.m. or watch online at c-span.org.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin heads back to NATO headquarters in Brussels later this week to join President Joe Biden at his meetings with NATO and European Union leaders Thursday.

Austin will also accompany the president to Poland Friday, where Biden is scheduled to meet with his counterpart Andrzej Duda and other senior Polish officials.

THE MYTH OF THE POLISH MiGs: Despite all the back and forth over the discussion of providing Poland’s aging fleet of Soviet-era MiG-29s to Ukraine, a former U.S. top NATO commander, who’s actually flown one of the Polish MiGs, says he agrees with the Pentagon that they won’t really provide much additional combat power to the Ukrainian Air Force.

Retired Air Force Gen. Joseph Ralston, a former supreme allied commander, flew on the Polish MiGs 20 years ago, and he recalled at a CSIS event last week how hard they were to maintain even back then because all the spare parts had to be obtained from Russia. Poland, by the way, has already announced plans to retire the MiGs as it buys new U.S. F-35s.

“My point is, I suspect that less than half of these airplanes are flyable. And they’re not going to be flyable very long without spare parts,” said Ralston, recounting how the MiGs, originally owned by the former East Germany, were sold to Poland for pennies on the euro.

“I think Poland paid two euros an airplane for them. And people at the time said they overpaid,” Ralston said. “So, the Poles now got these MiG-29s that they couldn’t maintain. And when this recent situation happened, I think Poland saw an opportunity. It says, we’ll give these 29s up and get F-16s as a replacement.”

Ralston said rather than sending the aging planes to Ukraine, which could be seen as provocative, a better idea would be to strip all usable parts off them and ship those to Ukraine to help it keep its 50 or so MiGs flying, since Ukraine can’t get spare parts from Russia.

“They ought to cannibalize the MiG-29s, take them apart right now, and ship the parts to Ukraine. And Ukraine could use those parts on their own MiG-29s.”

WHO’S IN CHARGE? One of the mysteries of the stumbling Russian offensive in Ukraine is who is running the show. No one seems to know which Russian general is in overall command of the operation, or if all the orders are coming from Moscow.

The result is that the Russian plan of attack appears disjointed and uncoordinated, which has contributed to the current bloody stalemate. “They’re having trouble with command and control on the ground, “ said John Kirby at the Pentagon. “And that would also include what we in the Pentagon call ‘jointness.’ We don’t see a level of integration between their air forces and their ground forces with any level of efficiency.”

“The bottom line is that their command and control has broken down,” says retired Gen. David Petraeus, a former head of the U.S. Central Command. “Their communications have been jammed by the Ukrainians. Their secure comms didn’t work. They had to go to a single channel, that’s jammable.”

“They use cellphones. The Ukrainians blocked the prefix for Russia. So that didn’t work. Then they took down 3G. They’re literally stealing cellphones from Ukrainian civilians to communicate among each other,” Petraeus said on CNN Sunday.

“So, what happens? The column gets stopped. An impatient general is sitting back there in his armored or whatever vehicle. He goes forward to find out what’s going on because there’s no initiative, there’s no noncommissioned officer corps. There’s no sense of initiative at junior levels. They wait to be told what to do. Gets up there — and the Ukrainians have very, very good snipers, and they have just been picking them off left and right. And at least four of these five are absolutely confirmed.”

SHIELDS UP WARNING: President Joe Biden is warning that Russian President Vladimir Putin, frustrated by his floundering war in Ukraine and angry with the West for crippling sanctions, may soon lash out with a cyberattack aimed at U.S. businesses.

“I have previously warned about the potential that Russia could conduct malicious cyber activity against the United States, including as a response to the unprecedented economic costs we’ve imposed on Russia alongside our allies and partners. It’s part of Russia’s playbook,” Biden said in a statement. “Today, my Administration is reiterating those warnings based on evolving intelligence that the Russian Government is exploring options for potential cyberattacks.”

The White House also released a fact sheet detailing actions U.S. companies should take to shore up their cyber defenses. Among the suggestion:

• Mandate the use of multi-factor authentication 
• Deploy modern security tools on all computers
• Change passwords across your networks
• Backup data and ensure you have offline backups 
• Encrypt data so it cannot be used if it is stolen
• Run exercises and drill your emergency plans to respond and minimize the impact of any attack

‘IT’S COMING’: BIDEN WARNS OF RUSSIAN CYBERATTACKS ON US AMID UKRAINE WAR

HARRIS’S NEW NAT SEC ADVISER: The White House has announced that Philip Gordon will replace Nancy McEldowney as national security adviser to Vice President Kamala Harris. Gordon was McEldowney’s deputy.

He served previously as special assistant to the president and White House coordinator for the Middle East, North Africa, and the Gulf Region.

KAMALA HARRIS’S NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER TO DEPART AMID STAFF SHAKE-UP

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Pentagon: ‘Clear evidence that Russian forces are committing war crimes’

Washington Examiner: Russia says Biden calling Putin a ‘war criminal’ has hurt relations with US

Washington Examiner: Pentagon says Russia’s alleged use of hypersonic missile not practical

Washington Examiner: Pentagon observes ‘increased’ Russian naval activity in Black Sea

Washington Examiner: Belarus ambassador’s departure from Ukraine signals expansion of war

Washington Examiner: ‘It’s coming’: Biden warns of Russian cyberattacks on US amid Ukraine war

Washington Examiner: Oligarch-owned tabloid deletes article reporting 10K Russian soldiers dead in Ukraine

Washington Examiner: Chernobyl staff released after working at gunpoint for three weeks

Washington Examiner: Zelensky says any ‘compromise’ with Russia will require a referendum

Washington Examiner: Ukraine says Russian claims about drifting mines are ‘complete disinformation’

Washington Examiner: EU approves rapid reaction force of up to 5,000 troops

Washington Examiner: Kamala Harris’s national security adviser to depart amid staff shake-up

Washington Examiner: Bulgaria moves to cut reliance on Russian energy supplies in historic shift

Washington Examiner: Italy seizes $116 million building from Russia’s richest man

Washington Examiner: Russian journalist who protested war called British spy by former employer

Washington Examiner: Psaki defends Iran deal as ‘based on what’s in the best interests’ of US and allies

AP: Ukraine retakes key Kyiv suburb; battle for Mariupol rages

Reuters: Biden Says Putin Is Weighing Use Of Chemical Weapons In Ukraine, Without Citing Evidence

Reuters: Russia May Not Stop With Ukraine – NATO Looks To Its Weakest Link

ABC News: After Pentagon Demurs, Biden Confirms Russia Fired Hypersonic Missile

Politico: ‘The Only Thing Putin Understands Is Strength’: U.S. Aircraft Carrier Flexes Muscle In The Med

USNI News: Intentions Of Russian Amphibious Warships In Black Sea Still Unclear

USNI News: Navy Exceeds 500 COVID-19 Vaccine-Related Separations

Air Force Magazine: Classified JADC2 Implementation Plan, Unclassified Strategy

Air Force Magazine: How DOD’s Old Concrete Infrastructure Could Start to Fix Itself

Washington Post: Family Members Mourn Four Marines Killed During NATO Exercise Last Week

19fortyfive.com: Putin Has a Problem: Mariupol Won’t Surrender to Russia

19fortyfive.com: Putin’s Ukraine Problems Are Getting Worse: His Commanders Are Dying

19fortyfive.com: Loitering Munitions: Ukraine’s Secret Drone Weapon Against Russia

19fortyfive.com: Putin’s Revenge: Russia Is Hitting Ukraine with Mach 3 Kalibr Cruise Missiles

19fortyfive.com: Opinion: We Think We Know What a Ukraine War Peace Deal Looks Like

Calendar

TUESDAY | MARCH 22

8:30 a.m. 801 Mount Vernon Place N.W. — Access Intelligence Satellite Conference discussion: “The Role of Commercial Space in Army, Navy, Air Force JADC2 Programs, with former NASA Administrator James Bridenstine; and Mike Dean, satellite communications chief at the Defense Department https://www.xpressreg.net/register

9 a.m. — George Washington University Institute for Korean Studies virtual Korea Policy Forum with two South Korean journalists and two U.S. journalists on “The New Yoon Administration and U.S.-Republic of Korea Relations.” https://calendar.gwu.edu/korea-policy-forum

9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee on hearing the the nominations of William LaPlante to be undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, Erik Raven to be undersecretary of the Navy, M. Tia Johnson be a judge of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Armed Forces, and Marvin Adams be deputy administrator for defense programs National Nuclear Security Administration https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/nominations

9:30 a.m. 2121 K Street N.W. — International Institute for Strategic Studies discussion: “Addressing the Iranian missile threat: Approaches to risk reduction and arms control,” with Hanna Notte, senior research associate at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation; William Alberque, director of the IISS Strategy, Technology and Arms Control Program; John Krzyzaniak, research associate at the IISS Strategy, Technology and Arms Control Program; and Timothy Wright, research analyst at the IISS Defense and Military Analysis Program https://www.iiss.org/events

10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual discussion: “Senior Leaders’ Perspective on War in Ukraine, with retired Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, former supreme allied commander Europe of NATO Allied Command Operations; and retired Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula, dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register

10 a.m. — Henry Stimson Center virtual discussion: “Maintaining the Nuclear Peace,” with U.N. High Representative for Disarmament Affairs Bzumi Nakamitsu; U.N. Youth Champion for Disarmament Dilan Ezgi Koc; and Michael Krepon, co-founder of the Stimson Center https://www.stimson.org/event/maintaining-the-nuclear-peace/

11 a.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace virtual discussion: “Islam, Peace and Women’s Rights in Afghanistan,” with U.S. Special Envoy for Afghan Women, Girls and Human Rights Rina Amiri; Singapore President Halimah Yacob; Grand Sheikh of Al Azhar University Ahmad Muhammad al Tayeb; and Fatima Gailani, Afghan Islamic scholar https://www.usip.org/events/islam-peace-and-womens-rights-afghanistan

1:30 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Ukraine and Taiwan: Parallels and Early Lessons Learned,” with John Culver, former CIA national intelligence officer for East Asia; and Bonnie Glaser, director of the German Marshall Fund of the U.S. Asia Program https://www.csis.org/events/ukraine-and-taiwan-parallels

1:45 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual event: “Capitalizing on Cooperation: A Conversation with U.K. Minister for Defense Procurement Jeremy Quin,” moderated by Emily Harding, deputy director and senior fellow, International Security Program, CSIS https://www.csis.org/events/acquisition-actions-series

2:30 p.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace virtual discussion: “Responding to Russian Atrocities in Ukraine: Developing a Multilateral Strategy for Accountability,” with Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova; Curtis Ried, senior director of multilateral affairs at the National Security Council; former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor, USIP vice president for Russia and Europe; Jane Stromseth, professor of international law at Georgetown University; and Lise Grande, USIP president and CEO http://www.usip.org

4 p.m. 1957 E Street N.W. — George Washington University School of International Affairs book discussion: “The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the U.S. and Xi Jinping’s China,” with author Kevin Rudd, president and CEO of the Asia Society, and former Australian prime minister https://calendar.gwu.edu/hon-kevin-rudd-avoidable-war

5:20 p.m. — Chief of Space Operations Gen. John W. “Jay” Raymond provides keynote remarks at the virtual Royal Australian 2022 Air and Space Power Conference https://raaf.eventsair.com/2022-air-space-power-conference

WEDNESDAY | MARCH 23

TBA Brussels, Belgium — Press Conference by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg ahead of Wednesday’s summit of NATO leaders. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news

8 a.m. — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group virtual conversation with Sen. Jack Reed, chairman, Senate Armed Services Committee https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu/

8:30 a.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual workshop: “Defense Readiness,” with Col. Benjamin Ring, director of U.S. Cyber Command’s Joint Cyber Warfighting Architecture Capability Management Office https://events.fcw.com/defense-readiness

9 a.m. 801 Mount Vernon Place N.W. — Access Intelligence Satellite Conference, with Umair Javid, chief counsel for FCC Chairwoman Jessica Rosenworcel; and Acting Assistant Defense Secretary for Space Policy John Hill https://www.xpressreg.net/register

10 a.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center’s Middle East Program virtual discussion: “The Changing Landscape of GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) Security,’ with Ellen Laipson, director of George Mason University’s Center for Security Policy Studies; David DesRoches, associate professor at the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies; and former Special Envoy to the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS James Jeffrey, chair of the WWC Middle East Program https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/changing-landscape-gcc-security

1 p.m. — Georgetown University’s Berkley Center for Religion, Peace and World Affairs virtual discussion: “Pondering the Nuclear Posture Review After Ukraine,” with James McKeon, program officer at the Nuclear Threat Initiative; Shannon Bugos, senior policy analyst at the Arms Control Association; and Maryann Cusimano-Love, associate professor at the Catholic University of America https://berkleycenter.georgetown.edu/events

1 p.m. — The Information Technology Industry Council virtual discussion: “Security in the Face of Rapidly Evolving Cyber Threats,” with Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Chairman Gary Peters, D-Mich. https://bridgeforinnovation.org/security-in-the-face-of-rapidly-evolving-cyber-threats ]

2 p.m. — Atlantic Council Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security virtual discussion: “Future Foreign Policy: What Russia’s war means for European defense,” with Kelly Grieco, senior fellow in the New American Engagement Initiative – Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security; and Benjamin Haddad senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/future-foreign-policy Livestream at https://youtu.be

2:30 p.m. 222 Russell — Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities hearing to receive testimony on strategic competition and security cooperation in the Western Hemisphere, with Melissa Dalton, assistant secretary of defense for homeland defense and hemispheric affairs; James Saenz, deputy assistant secretary of defense for counternarcotics and stabilization policy; and Brig. Gen. Frank Bradfield, assistant secretary of defense for homeland defense and hemispheric affairs https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings

2:30 p.m. — U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom virtual briefing: “The Implications of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and the State of International Religious Freedom,” with Rep. Chris Smith, R-N.J.; Rep. Jim McGovern, D-Mass.; Matias Perttula, director of advocacy at International Christian Concern; Nadine Maenza, chair of USCIRF; Nury Turkel, vice chair of USCIRF; and Jason Morton, senior policy analyst at USCIRF https://www.zoomgov.com/webinar/register/wn_bzbeegm2r-aupvbug0jvcw

6 p.m. — Aspen Institute Society of Fellows virtual discussion: “Defending the Digital World: A Survey of the Cybersecurity Risk Landscape,” with John Inglis, national cyber director and adviser to the president on cybersecurity; Dmitri Alperovitch, executive chairman at the Silverado Policy Accelerator and co-founder of CrowdStrike; Heather Adkins, senior director for security engineering at Google; and Ellen Nakashima, national security reporter at the Washington Post https://www.aspeninstitute.org/events

7 p.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion: “The Post-Cold War Transformation of the US-ROK Alliance: Implications and Future Cooperation,” with Richard Lawless, founder and principal at NMV International LLC; Clint Work, fellow at the Stimson Center’s 38 North Program; and Jenny Town, director of the Stimson Center’s 38 North Program https://www.stimson.org/event

THURSDAY | MARCH 24

TBA Brussels Belgium — U.S. President Joe Biden joins 29 other NATO leaders for an in-person summit on Ukraine at NATO Headquarters. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news

9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing to receive testimony on the posture of U.S. Northern Command and U.S. Southern Command, with Gen. Glen VanHerck, commander, U.S. Northern Command and North American Aerospace Defense Command; and Gen. Laura Richardson, commander, U.S. Southern Command https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings

9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The U.S.-Republic of Korea Alliance,” with Christopher Del Corso, charge d’ affaires ad interim at the U.S. Embassy in Seoul; and Sue Mi Terry, director of the Wilson Center’s Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy https://www.csis.org/events/capital-cable

10 a.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual summit: “What Challenges Will the Intelligence Community Face in 2022 and Beyond?” with Space Force Maj. Gen. Leah Lauderback, director of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance; Cynthia Bedell, director of communications and information sciences directorate at DEVCOM Army Research Laboratory; and Richard Naylor, senior cyber adviser to the director of the Defense Counterintelligence and Security Agency https://events.defenseone.com/intelligence-summit/registration/

11:30 a.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion: “The specter of a nuclear incident in Europe,” with International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live

3 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies media conference call briefing: “Ukraine Update,” with Mark Cancian, senior adviser at the CSIS International Security Program; Emily Harding, deputy director of the CSIS International Security Program; James Andrew Lewis, director of the CSIS Strategic Technologies Program; Jacob Kurtzer, director of the CSIS Humanitarian Agenda; William Alan Reinsch, CSIS chair in international business; Gerard DiPippo, senior fellow at the CSIS Economics Program; and Bonny Lin, director of the CSIS China Power Project Contact Andrew Schwartz, 202-775-3242 for access

4 p.m. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association Indiana Chapter virtual discussion: “The cyber-attacks hitting Ukraine,” with Chris Kubecka, HypaSec CEO /www.eventbrite.com/e/afcea-indiana-chapter-monthly-talk

FRIDAY | MARCH 25

11 a.m. — U.S. Energy Association virtual discussion: “The Ukrainian War Comes Home – Energy and Minerals in Crisis,” with Nick Akins, chairman, president & CEO of American Electric Power; Lori Esposito Murray, president of the Conference Board’s Committee for Economic Development; Peter Londa, president & CEO of Tantalus Systems; Linda Gasparello of PBS; Markham Hislop of Energi Media; Jennifer Hiller of The Wall Street Journal; Kostis Gerapoulos of New European; USEA Acting Executive Director Sheila Hollis; and Llewellyn King, creator, executive producer & host of White House Chronicle https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register

WEDNESDAY | MARCH 30

1 p.m. — Air Force Association virtual conversation: “Air and Space Warfighters in Action” with Lt. Gen. David Nahom, Air Force deputy chief of staff for plans and programs; Lt. Gen. William Liquori, deputy chief of space operations, strategy, plans, programs, requirements, and analysis; and retired Lt. Gen. Bruce “Orville” Wright, AFA president https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register