AN UNTOLD STORY REVEALED: It has been one of the great mysteries of the opening days of the war; why, with its superior air power and deep arsenal of precision-guided missiles, was Russia unable to establish superiority in the skies over Ukraine — something that is considered a prerequisite for a successful invasion.
In testimony before the House Armed Services Committee three weeks ago, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley hinted at the answer, citing what he called “the fundamental significance of air defense systems in order to deny an opponent that ability to achieve air superiority and supremacy,” and then adding that it wasn’t just the anti-aircraft missiles, including U.S. supplied Stingers, that thwarted the Russians, but the intelligence the U.S. gave Ukraine about how to employ them.
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“I’m not going to go [into it in] an open hearing about the intelligence we’ve collected and how we did it and all that, but this war has arguably been the most successful intelligence operation in military history,” Milley said, “It’s really tremendous, and someday that story will be told.”
THAT ‘SOMEDAY’ WAS YESTERDAY: A report from NBC News revealed that the U.S. was able to provide Ukrainian forces with precise intelligence about the impending Russian air assault, including when and where missiles and bombs would strike, enabling Ukraine to move its air defenses systems and fighter jets to safer locations.
“That near real-time intelligence-sharing also paved the way for Ukraine to shoot down a Russian transport plane carrying hundreds of troops in the early days of the war,” NBC reported, citing current and former U.S. officials.
That shootdown, which has not been previously reported, thwarted Russia’s plan to seize the Hostomel Airport outside Kyiv, and flow troops in via an air bridge to aid in an assault on the capital. Russian special operations troops who landed by helicopters met fierce resistance at the airport and eventually abandoned the strategic ground after suffering heavy losses.
UKRAINE SHOT DOWN RUSSIAN PLANE WITH HELP FROM US INTEL: REPORT
THE CASCADING EFFECT: Pentagon officials noted early on that Russian planes were operating very tentatively, able to conduct hit and run airstrikes, but unable to coordinate with ground forces, or provide the kind of close air support necessary for maneuver warfare.
The Russian pilots seemed spooked by the early losses of aircraft to Ukrainian defenses, something that becomes more understandable when you factor in the loss of an entire planeload of troops in the early days. And throughout the war, the U.S. has advised Ukraine on how to disperse its planes and missile batteries to stay one step ahead of the Russians.
“Ukraine continues to move air defenses and aircraft nearly every day with the help of American intelligence, which is one reason Russia has not been able to establish air dominance,” NBC reported, quoting one official as saying, “The Russian military has literally been cratering empty fields where air defenses were once set up … It has had an enormous impact on the Russian military’s ability on the ground.”
“I would say where we’re at is it’s revolutionary in terms of what we’ve been able to do,” Army Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, told a House Armed Services subcommittee last month.
“I’ve never seen it better in the 35 years that I’ve spent in uniform,” said Army Gen. Paul Nakasone, director, National Security Agency, testifying that the U.S. has been able to share timely intelligence that is “relevant,” “actionable,” and “able to be utilized by the Ukrainians.”
UKRAINE LOSES SEVERAL TOWNS IN THE EAST TO RUSSIAN FORCES
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HAPPENING TODAY: President Joe Biden, former President Bill Clinton, and former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton eulogize former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright at funeral services at the Washington National Cathedral, beginning at 11 a.m.
Albright, the first woman to serve as secretary of state, died of cancer on March 23 at the age of 84.
ALSO TODAY: A FULL SLATE OF BUDGET HEARINGS: Pentagon Comptroller and Chief Financial Officer Michael McCord testifies on President Joe Biden’s 2023 defense budget request before the House Budget Committee at 10:30 a.m.
Top Air and Space Force officials, including Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall, Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown, and Chief of Space Operations Gen. John Raymond, will appear before the House Armed Services Committee at 10 a.m.
And that’s two of the seven hearings on tap for today. Check our calendar below for details on the others.
AUSTIN: ‘WE’VE GOT TO MOVE AT THE SPEED OF WAR’: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin closed out yesterday’s meeting in Germany of nearly 40 donor nations who are sending weapons and supplies to Ukraine with an announcement that the countries would be meeting monthly to keep working on ways to get more firepower into the hands of the Ukrainian troops on the front lines.
“The briefings today laid out clearly why the coming weeks will be so crucial for Ukraine. So, we’ve got to move at the speed of war,” Austin said at a press conference at the Ramstein Air Base. “Today’s gathering will become a monthly contact group on Ukraine’s self-defense, and the contact group will be a vehicle for nations of goodwill to intensify our efforts and coordinate our assistance and focus on winning today’s fight and the struggles to come.” Austin said the Germany session underscored the need for the U.S. and its allies to be ready to support Ukraine over the “long haul.”
“That means dealing with the tremendous demand that we’re facing for munitions and weapons platforms and giving our staunch support to Ukraine while also meeting our own requirements.”
RAYTHEON CEO SAYS PRODUCTION OF STINGER MISSILES HEADED TO UKRAINE WILL BE SLOW
DELIVERABLES: Austin was able to announce a few new contributions from other countries, including, notably, 50 Cheetah anti-aircraft systems from Germany, which before the invasion had steadfastly refused to send lethal weaponry to Ukraine. Austin called the German contribution “a major decision” that was “especially welcome.”
The Cheetah, (“Gepard” in German), is a self-propelled, direct fire anti-aircraft cannon mounted on the chassis of a Leopard tank.
Austin noted that on Monday, the British government had also announced that it would provide Ukraine with additional anti-aircraft capabilities.
And yesterday, Canada announced that it will send Ukraine eight armored vehicles.
MILLEY: RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR SABER RATTLING ‘IRRESPONSIBLE’: In an interview with CNN yesterday, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley called the veiled and not-so-veiled references to the risk of nuclear conflict over Ukraine by Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov “irresponsible,” and said the rhetoric threatens the world order that has prevented major war for more than 70 years.
“Any time a senior leader of a nation-state starts rattling a nuclear saber, then everyone takes it serious. And it’s irresponsible for any senior leader to be talking like that in today’s world,” Milley said, when asked about Lavrov’s recent comment that the danger of nuclear war “is serious and real” and “should not be underestimated.”
“What’s at stake here is much greater than Ukraine. What’s at stake is the security of Europe. This is the greatest challenge for the security of Europe since the end of World War II,” Milley said. “And, indeed, you can easily make the case that what’s at stake is the global international security order that was put in place in 1945.”
“That international order has lasted 78 years. It’s prevented great power war. And underlining that entire concept is the idea that large nations will not conduct military aggression against smaller nations, and that is exactly what’s happened here, an unprovoked military aggression by Russia against a smaller nation,” Milley said. “So, if this is left to stand, if there is no answer to this aggression, if Russia gets away with this cost-free, then so goes the so-called international order. And if that happens, then we’re heading into an era of seriously increased instability.”
‘THE DANGER IS SERIOUS’: LAVROV WARNS RISK OF NUCLEAR WAR IS ‘CONSIDERABLE’
RUSSIA PLAYS THE GAS CARD: Russia’s state-controlled Gazprom has announced it’s cutting off Poland and Bulgaria from natural gas deliveries because they refuse to pay in Russian rubles.
“Gazprom Export has notified Bulgargaz and PGNiG of the suspension of gas supplies from April 27 until the payments are made according to the procedure outlined in the Decree,” Gazprom said, referring to Putin’s demands for rubles to skirt international sanctions.
Industry analysts say the cutoff won’t have an immediate impact on the two NATO nations because both countries have arranged for alternate supplies, and the warm spring weather will reduce the demand for natural gas.
MONTANA SENATOR SAYS EUROPE OFFERS CAUTIONARY TALE ON ENERGY SECURITY
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Ukraine loses several towns in the east to Russian forces
Washington Examiner: Ukraine shot down Russian plane with help from US intel: Report
Washington Examiner: Austin leaves open possibility of Ukraine reapplying for NATO membership
Washington Examiner: Raytheon CEO says production of Stinger missiles headed to Ukraine will be slow
Washington Examiner: Top Biden aide working on Russia sanctions to take leave of absence
Washington Examiner: Ukraine decapitates Russian ‘friendship’ statue in Kyiv
Washington Examiner: Fire engulfs ammunition depot in Russia after sound of explosions: Report
Washington Examiner: Russia claims Ukraine ‘saturated’ with weapons of mass destruction
Washington Examiner: Russia threatens to halt gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria
Washington Examiner: Montana senator says Europe offers cautionary tale on energy security
Washington Examiner: Top Senate Foreign Relations Democrat tells Blinken Iran deal will ‘do nothing’
Washington Examiner: Large military housing company mistreating service members, Senate panel finds
NBC: U.S. intel helped Ukraine protect air defenses, shoot down Russian plane carrying hundreds of troops
Washington Post: U.S. Monitors Blasts Reported In Moldova Breakaway Region Bordering Ukraine
USNI News: Marines Couldn’t Meet Request To Surge To Europe Due To Strain On Amphibious Flee
Stars and Stripes: China Protests Another ‘Routine’ U.S. Navy Transit Through Taiwan Strait
Air Force Magazine: Producing New B-21 Bomber Will Cost $20 Billion Through 2027
Defense One: Navy: Just One Shipbuilding Option Gets Closer To Desired Fleet
Air Force Magazine: Inability to Quickly Replace Stingers and Javelins for Ukraine Highlights Industrial Base Problems
Seapower Magazine: Marine Corps’ New VH-92 Presidential Helicopter Achieves Initial Operational Capability
USNI News: Franchetti Tapped For VCNO; 3rd Fleet Koehler To Joint Staff, Cheeseman To CNP
Military.com: Navy’s Top Enlisted Leader Tells George Washington Crew At Least They Aren’t ‘Sleeping In A Foxhole Like A Marine’
Air Force Magazine: Cooley to Be Reprimanded, Forfeit Nearly $55,000 in Pay for Sexual Assault Conviction
19fortyfive.com: Why the US Air Force Might Buy Less F-15EX Fighters
19fortyfive.com: Russia’s ‘Meteorite’ Could Be Putin’s Secret Weapon to Kill Ukraine’s Cities
19fortyfive.com: Stealth Showdown: Russia’s Su-57 vs. America’s F-35 (Who Wins?)
19fortyfive.com: Opinion: 19fortyfive.com: Can Western Tanks, Artillery, and Missiles Save Ukraine?
19fortyfive.com: Opinion: North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Are Here to Stay
19fortyfive.com: Opinion: Why North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Build-Up Is So Dangerous
Foreign Policy: Analysis: Why Xi Is Trapped in Ukraine
The Cipher Brief: Opinion: What We Know About Future Maritime Wars
Forbes: Five Signs War In Ukraine Is The Last Gasp Of The Putin Era
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | APRIL 27
9 a.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion: “Hackers and Social Networks: How North Koreans Are Accessing Foreign Information,” with Steven Denney, lecturer at the University of Vienna; Peter Ward, doctoral candidate at the University of Vienna; and Martyn Williams, fellow at 38 North and the Stimson Center https://www.stimson.org/event/hackers-and-social-networks
10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee Hearing: “Department of the Air Force Fiscal Year 2023 Budget Request,” with testimony from Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall; Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown; and Chief of Space Operations Gen. John Raymond https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
10 a.m. 2359 Rayburn — House Appropriations Homeland Security Subcommittee hearing: “FY2023 Budget Request for the Department of Homeland Security,” with testimony from Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas http://appropriations.house.gov Livestream at https://youtu.be/rhq5zghMGXQ
10 a.m. 2167 Rayburn — House Transportation and Infrastructure Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation Subcommittee hearing on “Review of FY2023 Budget Request for the Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation Program http://transportation.house.gov
10:30 a.m. 210 Cannon — House Budget Committee hearing: “Department of Defense FY2023 Budget,” with testimony from Defense Undersecretary/Comptroller and CFO Michael McCord testifies https://budget.house.gov Livestream at https://youtu.be/upbSrtAI_XI
1 p.m. — Defense One virtual discussion: “The Path to Marine Corps Modernization,” with Renata Spinks, assistant IT director/deputy CIO of information, command, control, communications, and computers at the Marine Corps; and Phil Osip, chief architect for DoD at RedHat https://event.on24.com
2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Landforce Hearing: “Fiscal Year 2023 Budget Request of the Department of Defense for Fixed-Wing Tactical and Training Aircraft Programs,” with testimony from Andrew Hunter, assistant secretary of the Air Force for acquisition, technology, and logistics; Air Force Lt. Gen. David Nahom, deputy chief of staff for plans and programs; Frederick “Jay” Stefany, acting assistant secretary of the Navy for research, development, and acquisition, and senior acquisition executive for the F-35 program; Rear Adm. Andrew Loiselle, director, Air Warfare Division; Lt. Gen. Mark Wise, deputy marine corps commandant for aviation; Air Force Lt. Gen. Eric Fick, program executive officer, F-35 Joint Program Office; Vice Adm. Ronald Boxall, director, force structure, resources, and assessment, Joint Staff; and Jon Ludwigson, director, contracting and national security acquisitions for the Government Accountability Office https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
2 p.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion with Georgia President Salome Zourabichvili on “her support for Ukraine, the concern about her own country and efforts to promote the European integration of Georgia” https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
2:30 p.m. 232A Russell — Senate Armed Services Emerging Threats and Capabilities Subcommittee hearing on U.S. Special Operations Command’s efforts to sustain the readiness of special operations forces and transform the force for future security challenges with testimony from Lt. Gen. Jonathan Braga, commanding general, U.S. Army Special Operations Command; Lt. Gen. James Slife, commander, Air Force Special Operations Command; Rear Adm. Hugh Howard, commander, Naval Special Warfare Command; Maj. Gen. James Glynn, commander, U.s Marine Forces Special Operations Command https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
3 p.m. 222 Russell — Senate Armed Services Personnel Subcommittee hearing on military and civilian personnel programs in the Department of Defense in review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2023 and the Future Years Defense Program, with testimony from Gilbert Cisneros, undersecretary of defense for personnel and readiness; Virginia Penrod, acting assistant secretary of defense for manpower and reserve affairs; Dr. David Smith, performing the duties of assistant secretary of defense for health affairs; Elizabeth Foster, executive director of force resiliency; Lt. Gen. Gary Brito, deputy chief of staff, G-1 U.S. Army; Vice Adm. John Nowell, chief of naval personnel; Lt. Gen. David Ottignon, deputy Marine Corps commandant for manpower and reserve affairs; Gwendolyn Defilippi, acting deputy Air Force chief of staff for manpower, personnel and services; and Patricia Mulcahy, deputy chief of space operations for personnel https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
4:30 p.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee hearing on the Energy Department’s atomic energy defense activities and Defense Department nuclear weapons programs in review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2023 and the Future Years Defense Program, with testimony from Jill Hruby, administrator, National Nuclear Security Administration; William White, Acting assistant secretary of energy for environmental management; Adm. James Caldwell, deputy administrator for naval reactors, National Nuclear Security Administration; Marvin Adams, deputy administrator for defense programs, National Nuclear Security Administration; Gen. Anthony Cotton, commander, Air Force Global Strike Command; and Vice Adm. Johnny Wolfe, director, Navy Strategic Systems Programs https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
4:30 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces: “Department of the Navy Fiscal Year 2023 Budget Request,” with testimony from Jay Stefany, performing duties of assistant secretary of the Navy, research, development, and acquisition; Vice Adm. Scott Conn, deputy chief of naval operations, warfighting requirements and capabilities; Lt. Gen. Karsten Heckl, Deputy Marine Corps Commandant, combat development and integration https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
5 p.m. — Georgetown University Law Center and the University of Pennsylvania Center for Ethics and the Rule of Law in-person and virtual event: “Reclaiming the Rule of Law: Guantánamo’s Forever Prisoners and the Fate of Liberal Democracy.” https://www.law.georgetown.edu/event/reclaiming-the-rule-of-law
THURSDAY | APRIL 28
8:30 a.m. — McCain Institute for International Leadership Sedona Forum 2022: “Strategic Competition.” Agenda at https://www.thesedonaforum.org/2022-virtual-agenda Register at https://www.eventbrite.com/e/sedona-forum
10 a.m. — House Appropriations State, Foreign Operations and Related Programs Subcommittee hearing on “FY2023 Budget Request for the Department of State,” with testimony from Secretary of State Antony Blinken http://appropriations.house.gov
10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee “Member Day” hearing to receive testimony from members of Congress on their national defense priorities for the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2023 https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
10 a.m. 2141 Rayburn — House Judiciary Committee committee hearing on “Oversight of the Department of Homeland Security.” http://judiciary.house.gov
10:30 a.m. 2358-A Rayburn — House Appropriations Military Construction, Veterans Affairs, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on “Air Force Installations and Quality of Life Update.” http://appropriations.house.gov
1 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The Future of the U.S. Navy,” with Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday https://www.csis.org/events/future-us-navy-chief-naval-operations
1 p.m. — Vandenberg Coalition virtual discussion: “The National Defense Strategy in American strategic planning, competition with China and the defense of Taiwan, and U.S. military strategy in the context of great power rivalry,” with former Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for Strategy and Force Development Elbridge Colby, author of Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Competition https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register
2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness Hearing: “F-35 Sustainment,” with testimony from Steven Morani, principal deputy assistant secretary of defense for sustainment / acting assistant secretary of defense for sustainment; Lt. Gen. Eric Fick, program executive officer, F-35 Joint Program Office; and Diana Maurer, director, Defense Capabilities and Management Team, Government Accountability Office https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
2:30 p.m. 2362-B Rayburn — House Appropriations Energy and Water Development, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on “FY2023 Budget Request for the Department of Energy,” with testimony from Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm http://appropriations.house.gov
3 p.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: “Defense spending in the states,” with Mackenzie Eaglen, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute; Elizabeth Chimienti, program activity lead for diversification and realignment in the Office of Local Defense Community Cooperation; and Michael O’Hanion, director of research in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution https://www.brookings.edu/events/defense-spending-in-the-states
4:30 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Intelligence and Special Operations Hearing: “Fiscal Year 2023 Budget Request for U.S. Special Operations Forces and Command,” with testimony from Christopher Maier, assistant secretary of defense special operations and low intensity conflict; Army Gen. Richard Clarke, commander, U.S. Special Operations Command https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
4:45 p.m. 1740 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies discussion with Latvian Ambassador to the U.S. Maris Selga on Latvian foreign policy, NATO and Ukraine https://www.eventbrite.com/e/latvia-and-baltic-security
FRIDAY | APRIL 29
10 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Seapower and U.S. Strategic Competition in the Indo-Pacific,” with Rep. Joe Courtney, D-Conn.; and Rep. Robert Wittman, R-Va. https://www.hudson.org/events/2107-virtual-event-seapower
11 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Cyber, Innovative Technologies, and Information Systems hearing: “Department of Defense Information Technology, Cybersecurity, and Information Assurance for Fiscal Year 2023,” with testimony from John Sherman, CIO and acting DOD chief digital and artificial intelligence officer; Kelly Fletcher, principal deputy CIO, Office of the Secretary of Defense; and Margaret Palmieri, principal deputy chief digital and artificial intelligence officer, Office of the Secretary of Defense https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
11 a.m. — McCain Institute virtual discussion: “NATO & China: Has a European War Changed NATO’s Approach to China?” with Lithuanian Parliament Member Zygimantas Pavilionis, former Lithuanian ambassador to the U.S.; Bobo Lo, nonresident senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis’s Democratic Resilience Program; and Jakub Janda, associate fellow at the Slovak Security Policy Institute https://www.mccaininstitute.org/resources/events
12 p.m. — Center for the National Interest virtual discussion: “What Are the Implications of the Ukraine War for Chinese Foreign Policy?” with Graham Allison, Douglas Dillon professor of government at Harvard University; retired Marine Lt. Gen. Wallace Gregson, senior director, China and the Pacific, Center for the National Interest; and Jacob Heilbrunn, moderator, editor of the National Interest https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
1 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Understanding the challenges of U.S. and allied defense innovation,” with James Taiclet, president, chairman, and CEO of the Lockheed Martin Corporation; Courtney Kube, national security and military correspondent at NBC News; and former Undersecretary of State for Global Affairs Paula Dobriansky, vice chair of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“If this is left to stand, if there is no answer to this aggression, if Russia gets away with this cost-free, then so goes the so-called international order. And if that happens, then we’re heading into an era of seriously increased instability.”
Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in an interview on CNN Tuesday.
