Early in this year’s iteration of the football artificial universe, it seemed records would fall left and right. Patrick Mahomes and Matt Ryan were on a pace for the passing-yards record of 5,477 yards in a season, held by Peyton Manning. Mahomes was on a pace for the passing-touchdowns record of 55 in a season, also by Manning.
Early on Adam Thielen of the Vikings, a favorite of this column—he’s undrafted out of Division 2 Minnesota State, where he played at a high-school-sized stadium, capacity 7,000—was on a pace to set the all-time NFL record for receiving yards in a season.
In the arena of team stats, the Buccaneers were on a pace to set the record for most offensive yards in a season, held by the New Orleans Saints at 7,474. The Bengals’ defense was on a pace to allow the most yards ever, a record also held by the Saints, at 7,042 yards. (Say what you will about New Orleans, in the Big Easy it’s always a party—2011 was the year the Saints had the most productive offense ever, by yards gained; 2012 was the year the same team had the worst defense ever, by yards allowed.)
Over in college, early on, Oklahoma was on a pace for the highest-ever average yards gained per play, a record now held by the University of Hawaii, at 8.6 yards per play.
Then came November, and the paces began to slacken. Now Thielen is merely on track for a spectacular year, not a record-setting year. Most likely no player or team cited above will end the season with an all-time record—though the Bengals sure are trying to be the worst defense ever!
What’s happening? Every season around Halloween, the Law of Large Numbers assumes command of football statistics.
The Law of Large Numbers holds that in a small set of numbers, fluky things happen; the larger the set becomes, the more likely the result will be average.
Through the first two NFL weeks, Mahomes tossed 10 touchdown passes. Yowza—that projects to 80 touchdown passes on the season, way more than the current record! Now, Mahomes has toiled in 10 games and “only” thrown 31 touchdown passes. Mahomes is no longer on a pace for a touchdown pass record; the Law of Large Numbers has asserted itself. Mahomes is still having a fabulous season, which may conclude with an MVP trophy. But each week the set of numbers becomes larger, and thus extraordinary outcomes diminish in likelihood.
The Law of Large Numbers can drop a player from the penthouse to the doghouse. Around Halloween of the 2002 season, quarterback Rich Gannon of the Raiders was on a pace to rewrite the league’s record book. By the close of the regular season Gannon still had a good outcome—league MVP and most-ever regular-season passing yards by a Raider. But as December dawned, Gannon’s stats regressed toward the mean. He ended the season with a horrendous five interceptions tossed in Oakland’s Super Bowl loss to City of Tampa.
Team stats tend to move toward expected outcomes just like individual stats. Last year at this juncture, the quick-snap Xbox offense of Oklahoma University also was on a pace for the all-time college record for yards per play. Oklahoma tailed off and ended with “only” 8.1 yards per play, a number any coach would envy, but not a record. The Sooners’ offense right now is holding at a record-setting 8.7 yards per play. But a tail-off won’t be a surprise.
The college football season has already started downhill in terms of weeks remaining; the pro season will start downhill soon. As this occurs, most astonishing numbers will become merely interesting numbers. Sometimes this happens to individual players because of injuries, sometimes it happens to whole teams because opponents catch on to tendencies. Mostly it happens because numbers seek out the middle. The Law of Large Numbers isn’t just a factor in statistics: It’s the law!
In other football news, Tuesday Morning Quarterback sponsors three sought-after clubs: The 500 Club (for teams that gain at least 500 yards, and lose), the swankier 600 Club (gain at least 600 yards, and lose), and the elite 700 Club (gain at least 700 yards and yet find a way to lose.)
Then there is the ne plus ultra of football yardage clubs. Members are issued a black metal card with gilt trim. Travel to the club is exclusively by Bugatti. A white-tuxedo doorman with a British accent parts a velvet rope. A jazz quartet plays as beautiful models in evening gowns swoon when the members enter. This is what life is like for the tiny few who can enter The 800 Club.
Davidson College—a highly selective hard-academics school of just 2,000 students that nevertheless competes in football at the Division 1AA level—receives admission to The 800 Club. As noted by many TMQ readers, including William Wells of Pelham, North Carolina, visiting the University of San Diego, Davison gained 852 yards on offense, and lost.
The stats included 789 yards rushing, which is more yards just by rushing than most football teams have ever gained on offense in total. Davidson rolled up 852 yards, scored three touchdowns of at least 80 yards, won the turnover battle, led 31-7, had four players who rushed for at least 100 yards, and still lost.
Oh, to have been among the 3,115 spectators present at Torero Stadium to behold this game! The half-full interpretation is that the University of San Diego gave up 852 yards, and still won.
The contest was played against the University of San Diego, not against the University of California at San Diego. By the standard of Miami University being “Miami of Ohio” in the sports pages, the University of San Diego should be, in the sports pages, “San Diego at San Diego.” See more below.
Stats of the Week #1. By defeating the Lions, Chicago broke a 1-9 stretch against Detroit.
Stats of the Week #2. Since taking the field for the AFC title game, Jacksonville is 3-7. It’s not even Thanksgiving, and Jax, a title-round club from last season, teeters on elimination.
Stats of the Week #3. Since taking the field for last season’s playoffs, the Falcons are 4-6.
Stats of the Week #4. Todd Gurley has scored a touchdown in 13 consecutive regular season games.
Stats of the Week #5. Mike Vrabel joined Matt Patricia as former Patriots to defeat New England this season as head coaches.
Stats of the Week #6. Chip Kelly and Jon Gruden, the highest-paid new coaches in college and the NFL, are a combined 3-16.
Stats of the Week #7. Steelers possession results versus Panthers: touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, field goal, touchdown, half ends; touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, starters leave game.
Stats of the Week #8. In the last 18 games, the Bills have changed starting quarterbacks seven times.
Stats of the Week #9. Russell Wilson is 6-8 versus the Rams and 17-7 versus all other teams in his division, the NFC West.
Stats of the Week #10. Cincinnati became the first team in NFL annals to allow at least 500 yards of offense in three consecutive games.
Sweet Plays in a Big Deal Game. The Rams faced Seattle and knew the Blue Men Group front seven often over-pursues. Todd Gurley got his touchdown when there was a fake sweep right, then he took Flip 90—Marshall Faulk’s favorite play for the old Showtime Rams—to the left as the Seattle front bought the fake and over-pursued. Best was that Rams left tackle Andrew Whitworth pulled wide and got a block in the secondary.
In the fourth quarter, LA/A showed the same basic look as it did on the Gurley touchdown left, but this time the sweep guy kept the ball, ran to the right and into the end zone as the front seven over-pursued left.
Sweet Plays in a Minor Game. Starting a quarterback they’d just signed off the street for the second time this season, the Bills came out versus the Jets on their first snap with six offensive linemen. This suggested to the defense a power run as part of a conservative game plan for newcomer quarterback Matt Barkley. Instead, Barkley play-faked and threw deep for a 47-yard gain to undrafted Robert Foster, who was just signed off the practice squad—essentially, called up from the JV. Sweet. Tuesday Morning Quarterback loves the tactic of throwing deep to a guy no one has ever heard of.
Several more times in the first half, Buffalo showed six offensive linemen. Leading 17-0, Buffalo reached 1st-and-goal on the 7-yard line of Jersey/B. Again the Bills had six offensive linemen—or did they? Actually what they had was an unbalanced line with the hefty Dion Dawkins, normally a left tackle, at tight end. The Jets did not properly react to the referee’s erasure-motion signal, which warns the defense that a lineman has reported eligible. Jersey/B seemed to assume it was facing another set with six offensive linemen, when actually it was facing a 320-pound man who was going out for a pass—which Dawkins did, for a touchdown.
It’s very sweet to see a big guy catch a touchdown pass. The play was not signaled as “Halle Berry”—an actual Rams audible versus the Seahawks—rather, the actual signal in the huddle was “Get Dion in the End Zone, on One.” That’s got the sense of fun that can help revive a flagging season. (Dawkins grew up close to the New Jersey field where the game was played.)
What happened may erroneously be referred to as a “tackle eligible.” Dawkins was not a tackle on the down, but an end. At least once a year, Bill Belichick’s Patriots try to catch a defense napping with a guy who looks like he’s ineligible because he’s a tackle, but actually is an end on the snap. In the 2005 New England-Philadelphia Super Bowl, Mike Vrabel, then a Flying Elvii linebacker and now the Titans’ head coach, caught a touchdown pass on a snap on which the Eagles thought Vrabel had come in as an extra blocker for a power run, and failed to react to the referee’s signal that Vrabel was eligible.
Sour Plays of the Week. Carolina at Pittsburgh tied at 7, the Cats took possession on their 12. Carolina coaches radioed in a tight end middle screen. T.J. Watt, J.J. Watt’s brother, came at Cam Newton unblocked. Newton retreated to his own end zone and then, to prevent a safety, heave-hoed in a general direction of the tight end. The ball fluttered, was intercepted, and became a pick-six.
Most quarterbacks are coached that it’s better to take a sack—in this case, better to take a safety—than cause a turnover. Newton, an eight-year veteran, should know this: Sour for the visitors. The home team went on to confound the Panthers’ protection schemes by rushing five men on most passing downs. Carolina never adjusted, surrendering five sacks and numerous hard hits on Newton. Four times a Pittsburgh edge rusher had a free lane to the Carolina quarterback. Denver won the 2016 Super Bowl over Carolina largely by rushing five on almost every passing play, hitting Newton and causing him to commit turnovers. Sour that two years later, the Panthers fell for this again.
On the night, Pittsburgh hit two touchdown passes of more than 50 yards. Carolina plays a Tampa Two style of defense, whose big virtue is supposed to be that it gives up short gains but never gets burned deep. When a Tampa Two gets burned deep, that’s mighty sour.
On the second long Steelers touchdown pass, Pittsburgh lined up with a “bunch” left and Antonio Brown lonesome on the right. Most of the night, Carolina cornerbacks played soft. That is the standard Tampa Two tactic: allow short gains but prevent deep completions. This time, rookie Cats cornerback Donte Jackson was in press coverage, right in Brown’s face. Ben Roethlisberger noticed and audibled to a go pattern for Brown. While Roethlisberger was audibling to a deep pass to Brown on the right, he elaborately pointed toward the “bunch” guys on the left, in order to make the Carolina safeties think that was where the pass would be headed. They bought the fake, which should not happen in the kind of defense Carolina uses.
Sweet ‘n’ Sour Pair of Plays. Host Tennessee leading 24-10 late in the third quarter, New England faced 4th-and-4 on the Flaming Thumbtacks’ 41. That cannot seriously be the punter trotting on the field!
Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel, a former Bill Belichick acolyte, was so sure Belichick wouldn’t launch a preposterous punt that he had the Titans in “safe” formation—defending against a fake punt. But a real punt it was. Tennessee staged a 10-play drive for a field goal and a 27-10 fourth quarter lead, and soon Brian Hoyer was warming up. Punting on fourth-and-short in opposition territory while trailing in the second half! Sour for the defending AFC champions.
From his knowledge of the Patriots’ years of success, Vrabel knows to vary game plans week to week. Heeding this wisdom, the Titans did several unexpected things, including wildcat formations and a wide receiver throwing a pass back to Marcus Mariota. The decisive down was New England 4th-and-6 in Tennessee territory in the fourth quarter. Knowing that Tom Brady likes the short middle in this down-and-distance, Vrabel stacked the middle of the field. Incompletion, and Hoyer came in. When you get Belichick to yank his Hall of Fame quarterback with plenty of the fourth quarter remaining, that’s sweet for you, sour for the Flying Elvii.
Three weeks ago when the Flaming Thumbtacks lost in London on the final snap by going for the deuce to win (rather than a PAT to force overtime), TMQ said their all-in tactic would fire Tennessee up and revive its season. Since that moment, the Titans are 2-0 with a victory over the defending conference champion.
The Golden Age of Telescopes Approaches. A judge’s decision cleared the way for the Thirty Meter Telescope project in Hawaii to proceed. That means soon the Golden Age of Telescopes will begin.
Since the invention of the telescope, probably in the Netherlands about four centuries ago—the devices were quickly acquired by ship captains and renamed “spyglasses”—telescopes have gotten steadily more powerful.
About a generation ago, telescopes aimed upward started to feature large mirrors or “interferometry,” which increases the wave-gathering power of smaller receptors. About a generation ago the first telescopes were launched into space, above artificial lights and atmospheric distortions. The Hubble Space Telescope is best-known, but the list of spyglasses in space is surprisingly long. Optical telescopes have been joined by infrared, microwave, ultraviolet, and radio astronomy. In the last generation, to Mount Wilson Observatory and other well-known older projects were added PAN-STARRS in Hawaii, an advanced telescope that can see a broad field, and the European Southern Observatory complex in Chile.
You ain’t seen nothing yet! Now the really good stuff is coming, either in locations away from smog (Hawaii) or far from city lights (tip of Chile) or up in the heavens (multiple space telescope projects in progress).
The Thirty Meter Telescope will have an enormous single mirror. There was local opposition to placing the device on Mauna Kea, which for technical reasons is ideal for telescopes; the compromise is that after the Thirty Meter Telescope, no more astronomical installations will be raised at Mauna Kea. The Thirty Meter Telescope, not Pearl Harbor or Barack Obama, may be what our distant descendants remember Hawaii for.
Underway in Chile is the Extremely Large Telescope (the name says it all). Segments will add up to an effective 39-meter mirror, collecting 100 million times more light than can be sensed by a human eye. Far from smog and streetlights, the Extremely Large Telescope will see the skies as our ancestors once did—with 100 million times the accuracy, plus digital logs.
NASA is working on the Webb Space Telescope, Hubble’s replacement. Though the Webb, as with government projects under both political parties, is way over budget and way behind schedule, this machine will be unlike any other. Basically it’s the Extremely Large Telescope in outer space. Webb should be able to see the earliest light from the Big Bang and also provide the first direct observation of planets in star systems beyond ours. (All “exoplanets” cataloged have not actually been seen, rather been inferred from shadows or from the orbital gyrations of stars.)
Euclid, an infrared telescope being developed by the European Space Agency, will, like the Webb space telescope, be launched to one of the LaGrange points, locations farther away than the moon, where satellites do not require fuel to prevent their orbits from decaying. Euclid is being customized to attempt to determine what in the ever-lovin’ holy heck that dark matter and dark energy are, to state a current puzzle of cosmology.
As these advanced telescopes go online, in the next generation humanity will learn more about the cosmos than has been learned by all human generations so far. We all spend too much time staring at screens. Spend a little time staring up at the stars!
This item serves as a trailer for Tuesday Morning Quarterback’s annual A Cosmic Thought treatment of what has been discovered recently about the really cosmic questions, such as how life began or how long the universe will exist. I am delighted to note that because of the calendar, this year’s A Cosmic Thought will run on Christmas Day.
Hidden Play of the Week. Hidden plays are ones that never make highlight reels but stop or sustain drives. Dallas leading 6-3, the Boys faced 3rd-and-15 deep on their side of the field, Philadelphia having called time out to force a punt with, most likely, a good chance for their long-legged placekicker to tie the score by intermission. Instead Dallas threw a simple flare pass for the first down, with two offensive linemen hustling upfield for blocks that allowed Michael Gallup to reach the line-to-gain. The Cowboys ended up scoring a touchdown just before the half—a 10-point swing in a contest that Dallas ultimately won by seven points.
We’re All Professionals Here. Generally there are busted coverages early, then as the season progresses, secondaries jell. (This is another reason early passing stats tend to tail off.) But on the first drive of Arizona at Kansas City, the Chiefs lined up trips—three wide receivers on one side—and the Cardinals deployed two defensive backs against the trips set. The result: an effortless touchdown to Tyreek Hill.
In the second quarter of Bills at Jets, three holding penalties were called against Jersey/B on the same play. Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott had to be asked by the referee which two he wanted to decline. (Only one penalty per play can be enforced.)
Buck-Buck-Brawckkkkkkk. Arizona trailing Kansas City by 20-14 in the third quarter, the Cactus Wrens punted on 4th-and-1. This is all the information you need to know which team lost. Who cares if the spot was the Arizona 29? Arizona punted on 4th-and-1 while trailing late against a high-scoring team!
Despite gaining 852 yards on offense and averaging 10.8 yards per rush, Davidson College punted on fourth-and-short in opposition territory. Despite gaining 640 yards on offense and averaging 7.4 yards per snap, Oklahoma State punted on fourth-and-short at midfield. That’s all the information you need to know who lost both games.
Year of the Geezer Quarterback. Drew Brees, 39 years old, moved into second place all-time for touchdown passes. On the season, this geezer (in athletic terms) has 21 touchdown passes versus one interception.
Call Time! TMQ has been noting that NFL teams don’t hesitate to spend a time out on offense to prevent delay-of-game and a loss of five yards, though five yards is pretty easy to make up. Yet NFL teams will almost never use a time out to prevent a much larger loss of field position on defense.
Green Bay leading 28-12, the Packers lined up in punt formation at midfield on 4th-and-3 in the fourth quarter. The Packers seemed to set, then several players shifted, then a man went in motion away from the shift. This is a fake, call time out! Miami coaches kept their time outs in their pockets as they watched the Green Bay fake punt gain a first down, putting the Packers into clock-killing mode.
Fourth-and-short is when fake kicks are most appealing—that’s why Tennessee expected New England to fake a punt on fourth-and-short. That’s why the Eagles should have been ready for the fake punt that Dallas employed to run for a first down on 4th-and-2. And it’s why Jersey/B should have expected the Bills to fake a punt in a similar situation. In the Bills fake, upback Logan Thomas, who was a college quarterback, took the snap and threw for a first down.
Unhappy Hour in Hell’s Sports Bar. Hell’s Sports Bar has an infinite number of flatscreen TVs, but certain blackout restrictions may apply. This weekend in Hell’s Sports Bar, the infinite flatscreen TV endlessly showed, on repeating loop, nothing but the Monday Night Football matchup of Santa Clara versus Jersey/A, combined records 3-14. This was the worst Monday pairing since 1975. The audio was off, replaced by an endless-loop soundtrack of Chris Collinsworth chortling. On the upside, pitchers of locally sourced brimstone were on special.
Best 99-Yard Drive. Defeating Davidson, San Diego at San Diego scored on a 99-yard pass.
Go For It! Hosting Clemson, Boston College faced 4th-and-49.
Adventures in Announcing. Early in Clemson at Boston College, the Tigers punted. The kick touched an unsuspecting Clemson player downfield; an Eagle snapped up the bouncing ball and ran for a touchdown. ABC’s Chris Fowler called this a “risky move.” When ABC showed the play again in the fourth quarter, Fowler again said that what Boston College did was “risky.”
There was no risk! When the kicking team is first to touch a punt downfield, nothing bad can happen to the receiving team, which can choose between the result of the play or possession at the spot of first touching. Sure, football rules are too complicated. But Fowler does nothing all year long except college football, and he calls the new college football four-team playoff. He didn’t know this rule, and even by the fourth quarter, no spotter had whispered the correct information into his ear.
TMQ Is Staging a Signature Drive for a Ballot Referendum to Ban Punting on 4th-and-1. Your columnist pays attention to ballot initiatives and other forms of plebiscites. They are direct democracy—the instances in which voters make public-policy choices, rather than subcontracting to a public official. They reflect sentiment about issues, not about the personalities of candidates. And lacking the angry confrontations of personality politics, ballot initiatives bore cable news and talk radio to tears. Anything talk radio and cable news doesn’t like must be important!
Owing to an initiative, Florida will restore the voting rights of felons. Some 64 percent of Floridians voted aye, meaning lots of conservatives and Republicans were persuaded that it is just not right to deny the vote to those who have paid their debt to society.
A Florida plebiscite will make it hard, though not impossible, for the state to allow legal gambling on the NFL. You can say this is the hidden hand of the Jai Alai lobby. But anything that discourages wagering on the NFL will be good for professional football. Of course the initiative may also serve as the pretext for the Jaguars to decamp to London, where betting is practically mandatory.
In several states, voters took steps to reduce gerrymandering. Perhaps this will encourage more judges to toss out gerrymandered districts. A constitutional amendment to elect members of the House of Representatives at-large, like senators, would eliminate gerrymandering of Congress and be a huge step toward draining the poison from American politics. The plebiscites may point the way.
Money was shifted to public housing in California, the state with the worst housing problems. A free-market approach—eliminate exclusionary zoning—would be preferable. But if Californians won’t stand for that, then they must invest more in public housing.
Living-wage referendums passed in several states, as did support of Obamacare. In general, liberal ideas prevailed—another indicator that the American polity is further to the left than the White House, Senate, and Supreme Court. Punitive measures against fossil fuels were the main lefty idea that lost—and deserved to lose. Climate change is real, but there are better fixes.
You knew there had to be a nutty referendum on the West Coast and there was: California voters put the Golden State on track for year-long Daylight Savings Time.
Initiatives from 2018 are summarized here.
In Doonesbury, Zonker Harris Had an Entire Roomful of Summer Camp Trophies. After Miami University posted a close victory over Ohio University, Red Hawks coach Chuck Martin bitterly complained that there was no trophy. For winning a single game! More to the point, Martin is paid at least $450,000 a year as profit from the labor of unpaid players, yet went off complaining that his school is “cheap”—Martin receiving eight times the U.S. median household income makes him think his employer “cheap.” Martin also blasted the “idiot fans” who fail, apparently, to worship him sufficiently.
The hypocrisy of modern-day-plantation NCAA economics—free labor mostly from African Americans, ease and luxury for the mostly white males at the top—normally is observed via the megabucks coaches of Alabama and similar programs. Martin’s self-pity shows the same problems infest the mid-majors, too.
Pairing note: the Red Hawks defeated Ohio University, not Ohio State. The sports media usually calls this school “Miami of Ohio,” though by official name the school should be “Miami University.” If ESPN is going to call Miami University “Miami of Ohio,” then ESPN should call the University of Miami “Miami of Florida.”
Fortune Almost Favors the Bold! Scoring to pull within one point with a minute remaining at Oklahoma, Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy went for two and the lead. TMQ contends that going for a deuce in this situation is not a “huge gamble,” as sportsyak says, but the smart move. It’s three yards for the lead versus a best-case of a tie (the Sooners held all their time outs), then a 50/50 proposition in overtime. Plus Oklahoma State was the visitor, and coaching lore holds that the home team usually prevails in overtime.
On the deuce the Cowboys’ intended receiver was open in the end zone; the exhausted Oklahoma State quarterback, who was attempting his 53rd pass, underthrew him for an incompletion. Going for two was the right decision, and Gundy’s staff clearly had a good play in mind. It just didn’t work.
Last year’s Oklahoma-Oklahoma State matchup ended 62-52; this one ended 48-47. Maybe it’s to the good that Bud Wilkinson and other cloud-of-dust coaches from the low-scoring pasts of these universities weren’t around to see 163 snaps, 68 first downs, and 1,342 yards of offense, which were Saturday’s totals.
Both schools employ the college-style Xbox offense: no huddle, rapid tempo, lots of hitch screens and deep routes and—this is the big difference compared to the professional no-huddle tactics employed by New England and Philadelphia—few intermediate passes over the middle. Pro teams that “go tempo,” the current term of art for fast pace, know there’s no way they can rush for 353 yards, as Oklahoma did on Saturday, and so must complete intermediate passes over the middle. College rules also allow a type of hitch screen that isn’t legal in the NFL, another reason the Xbox offense doesn’t translate directly to the pros.
Last year versus Oklahoma, Oklahoma State joined TMQ’s 600 Club by gaining 661 yards and losing. This year the Cowboys renewed their membership, gaining 640 yards and losing. The Sooners averaged 9.1 yards per snap, increasing the chance they will disprove this column’s lead by setting the NCAA big-college yards-per-snap season record.
Environmental note: kickoff temperature 51 degrees, Oklahoma had heaters on its sideline. Since visitors must be provided with anything the home team uses, Oklahoma State also had heaters on its sideline. At 51 degrees!
The 500 Club. Hosting SMU, Connecticut gained 580 yards, scored 50 points, and lost. Hosting the Potomac Drainage Basin Indigenous Persons, the Buccaneers gained 501 yards and not only lost—they only scored three points.
Next Week. Good luck to the Packers in their game at Seattle! They’ll need luck: The last seven consecutive Green Bay-Seahawks matchups have been won by the home team.
Green Bay faithful should not lose heart as the Packers play three of their five December contests in the cold at Lambeau Field, including hosting two hot-weather dome teams, Arizona and Atlanta.
(Explanation of above item: internal WEEKLY STANDARD rules require Packers favoritism.)
