Larry Sabato’s “Crystal Ball” will shift its rating for the North Carolina Senate race from a toss-up to leans Democratic, after recent polls have shown Sen. Kay Hagan is “proving to be quite resilient.”
Part of the reason Hagan is so strong, writes Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik, is because her Republican opponent Thom Tillis is underperforming.
“The problem for Republicans in the Tar Heel State is that Thom Tillis, their candidate and the speaker of the state House of Representatives, has particularly poor numbers for a challenger: His unfavorables are usually higher than his favorables, and not just by a few points,” Kondik writes. “Hagan’s numbers aren’t great, either,” he adds, “though they appear to be improving.”
Indeed, Hagan has only reached 45 percent support on average in public polling. But she has consistently outpaced Tillis by a few points, including in a Fox News poll Wednesday that showed her with a five-point lead.
Tillis’ nagging unpopularity, Kondik speculates, is likely due in part to his role as speaker of the North Carolina House, which ties him to an unpopular state legislature. Democrats and Hagan have attempted to reinforce that association with voters.
The North Carolina Senate race is one of a few key battleground states for Democrats, and Hagan is considered one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents in this election cycle. Winning in North Carolina will be key if the Democratic Party hopes to maintain its majority in the Senate.
